No, A Rogue Star Will Not Destroy All Life on Earth by Flinging it Out of Orbit “Soon”

Bird flip to the editors of the Independent who approved this title. It is clearly clickbait, and that annoys me. It appears that The Independent, through Julia Musto’s article, used a sensational or clickbait-style headline to attract attention by implying that Earth may be flung out of orbit “soon.”

“The Earth could be soon flung out of orbit or into the sun – all thanks to a passing star”

Julia Musto

Thu, June 19, 2025 at 2:12 PM PDT
https://www.yahoo.com/news/earth-could-soon-flung-orbit-213447670.html

The underlying scientific study Musto reported on actually refers to a very long-term, low-probability scenario occurring over billions of years, not an imminent event. This kind of headline can mislead readers by exaggerating the immediacy or likelihood of the event to generate clicks and engagement, which is a common criticism of some modern news media practices. Julia Musto herself is a reputable science correspondent, but the headline choice likely reflects editorial decisions aimed at drawing in readers rather than an accurate representation of the scientific timeline.

Here is a factually accurate, non-sensationalistic rewrite of the story based on the latest research:

New Study Assesses Long-Term Risks of Passing Stars on Earth’s Orbit

Astronomers Nathan Kaib and Sean Raymond have conducted extensive computer simulations to examine how passing stars might affect the stability of our solar system over the next several billion years. Their research, recently published in the journal Icarus, finds that while the solar system is generally stable, there is a small but measurable chance that the gravitational influence of a star passing near the Sun could disrupt planetary orbits, including Earth’s.

The study estimates that over the next approximately 4 to 5 billion years, Earth has about a 0.2% chance of experiencing a major orbital disruption. This could involve a collision with another planet or being ejected from its current orbit, potentially even being flung into the Sun or out into deep space where conditions would be inhospitable to life. These odds are higher than previous estimates because this study includes the long-term effects of passing stars, which earlier models often neglected.

Mercury is identified as the most vulnerable planet, with its orbit being significantly more susceptible to becoming unstable due to these stellar encounters. Instabilities in Mercury’s orbit could cascade, increasing the risk of collisions involving Venus, Mars, or Earth. Mars has a slightly higher estimated risk of collision or ejection at about 0.3%, while Pluto faces a roughly 5% chance of orbital chaos over five billion years.

Importantly, the researchers emphasize that none of these outcomes are likely to occur anytime soon in human terms. The risk is spread over billions of years, comparable to the remaining lifespan of the Sun itself. There are currently no known stars on a trajectory close enough to the solar system to cause such disruptions in the near future.

In fact, the study notes that a star passing within 100 astronomical units (AU) of the Sun—a distance about two and a half times that of Pluto’s orbit—has about a 1% chance per billion years. Even then, simulations show a 92% chance that the planets will remain on stable orbits despite such encounters.

In summary, while passing stars represent the most probable external trigger for long-term orbital instability in our solar system, the probability that Earth will be flung out of orbit or collide with another planet within the next several billion years remains very low—around 0.2%. No specific passing star has been identified as an imminent threat.

This reflects the scientific findings without exaggeration or misleading immediacy, presenting the real odds and timescales involved[1][2][4][5][8].

No, A Rogue Star Will Not Destroy All Life on Earth by Flinging it Out of Orbit “Soon”

New Study Assesses Long-Term Risks of Passing Stars on Earth’s Orbit

Leave a Reply