Collision Course: The Space Rocks That Threaten Our Lives

A 20 million ton asteroid is currently hurtling through space at 23,000 miles per hour, on a collision course with Earth. But fear not – NASA has 25 years to stop it. There are two scenarios: the first, and thankfully most likely, is that Apophis will fly by in April 2029, the year it is due to make its first “close approach,” and that’s the last we’ll see or hear of it. The second is that during that approach, it’ll pass through what scientists refer to as a “keyhole” – a small area of space that can alter the asteroid’s course due to Earth’s gravity. If this happens, it’ll be on a massive collision course with us seven years later, likely to be April 13, 2036 — Easter Sunday. Well, the above was true as far as we knew in 2011, but in 2024 the revised estimate from NASA is quite different.

Revised Estimated Likelyhood

Although initial estimates suggested a 2.7% chance of collision in 2029, subsequent observations have ruled out this possibility[9]. NASA has effectively ruled out the possibility of an impact in 2036, with the danger of a 2036 passage lowered to level 0 on the Torino scale in August 2006[9].

Estimated Mass

Now that we can all relax about this one, let’s take a look at how bad it could have been. Asteroid Apophis is estimated to have a mass ranging from approximately 21 billion kilograms (2.1 × 10^10 kg) to as much as 62 billion kilograms (6.2 × 10^10 kg), depending on varying density assumptions and thermal observations. With a diameter of about 340 meters, Apophis is classified as a potentially hazardous asteroid due to its size and proximity to Earth. Its composition is believed to be similar to ordinary chondrite meteorites, comprising a mix of rock and metals, which influences its physical characteristics and behavior in space.

Realistic Assessment of Course Change Possibility

To change Apophis’ course, significant force would be required, and recent advancements in planetary defense strategies provide insight into potential methods. NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission successfully demonstrated the kinetic impactor technique, which involves crashing a spacecraft into an asteroid to alter its trajectory. Given Apophis’s mass and structure, a carefully calculated impact would be necessary to achieve a meaningful deflection. While current calculations indicate that Apophis poses no immediate threat for at least the next century, ongoing research into asteroid deflection techniques remains crucial for future planetary defense efforts.

Recent Developments in Asteroid Monitoring and Deflection

NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission has successfully demonstrated the kinetic impactor method as a viable means of altering an asteroid’s trajectory. In 2022, DART collided with the asteroid Dimorphos, altering its orbit around its partner Didymos and ejecting millions of tiny fragments into space. While these fragments pose no risk to Earth, they could create a spectacular meteor shower if they enter our atmosphere [1].

Additionally, several potentially hazardous asteroids have been identified by scientists. For instance, Bennu and 1950 DA are closely monitored due to their size and potential impact risks in the distant future [3]. Continued advancements in detection technologies are crucial for early identification of such threats [4].

Relevance to Human Survival

A direct hit from asteroid Apophis would have catastrophic consequences for the impact area and surrounding regions. If Apophis were to collide with Earth, it would release energy equivalent to over 1,000 megatons of TNT, causing widespread destruction[9]. The impact would create a crater several kilometers wide and trigger devastating earthquakes, tsunamis (if it hit an ocean), and massive wildfires. While not globally catastrophic like the dinosaur-killing asteroid, an Apophis impact would still cause severe regional damage, potentially destroying entire cities and affecting millions of people through secondary effects like climate disruption and infrastructure damage[12].

The threat posed by asteroids like Apophis highlights the importance of planetary defense strategies for human survival. Historical events, such as the asteroid impact that led to the extinction of dinosaurs, underscore the catastrophic potential of such collisions [5]. Modern monitoring systems aim to detect these threats early enough to take action.

Efforts like NASA’s DART mission are essential in developing methods to deflect asteroids and prevent potential impacts. These initiatives not only protect human life but also preserve ecosystems and infrastructure from devastating consequences [6]. As technology advances, our ability to predict and mitigate these threats improves, offering hope for safeguarding our planet against future asteroid impacts.

Mining Apophis

What if we start mining Apophis to reduce its mass? How many years away are we from being able to do something like that and why, what are the biggest hurdles?

Technological Readiness – Currently, we are still years away from having the capability to mine Apophis or any other asteroid on a large scale. While there has been progress in space exploration and asteroid research, asteroid mining remains a theoretical concept rather than a practical reality.

Current Capabilities:
– We have successfully landed spacecraft on asteroids (e.g., OSIRIS-REx on Bennu)[17].
– We can collect small samples from asteroids and return them to Earth[17].
– We have the ability to study asteroids remotely and up close with various instruments[18].

Future Developments:
– NASA’s OSIRIS-APEX mission will study Apophis closely after its 2029 Earth flyby[18].
– Various companies and organizations are proposing missions to visit Apophis before and during its close approach[18].

Major Hurdles – Several significant challenges need to be overcome before asteroid mining becomes feasible:

1. Technological Advancements: We need to develop advanced mining equipment that can operate in the harsh space environment and extract resources efficiently[17].

2. Transportation: Getting mining equipment to Apophis and returning mined materials to Earth requires significant propulsion advancements[17].

3. Economic Viability: The cost of asteroid mining missions must be justified by the value of extracted resources[17]. While a single asteroid, 16 Psyche, is estimated to contain $700 quintillion worth of gold[24], and the true mineral content of Apophis is unknown without direct sampling, if Apophis is a typical nickel-iron asteroid, it could contain approximately $1.64 billion worth of nickel (assuming 5% nickel content) and $8.21 billion worth of iron (assuming 95% iron content)[25].

4. Legal and Regulatory Framework: International laws regarding space resource extraction are still evolving and need to be established[17].

5. Orbital Dynamics: Altering Apophis’s mass could potentially affect its orbit, which would require precise calculations and control[20].

6. Time Constraints: Apophis will make its close approach to Earth in April 2029, leaving limited time for mission planning and execution[18].

Feasibility Timeline – Given these challenges, it’s difficult to provide an exact timeline for when asteroid mining might become feasible. However, we can make some estimates:

– Near-term (5-10 years): Continued research and small-scale asteroid sample return missions[18].
– Mid-term (10-20 years): Potential demonstration of basic asteroid resource extraction techniques.
– Long-term (20+ years): Possibility of commercial asteroid mining operations, depending on technological and economic factors.

While the idea of mining Apophis to reduce its mass is interesting, we are likely decades away from having the capability to significantly alter an asteroid’s mass through mining. The focus in the near term will be on studying Apophis and other near-Earth asteroids to better understand their composition and behavior[18][21]. These scientific missions will pave the way for future asteroid mining endeavors, but altering Apophis’s mass before its 2029 approach is not currently feasible.

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Collision Course: The Space Rocks That Threaten Our Lives

Revised Estimated Likelyhood

Estimated Mass

Realistic Assessment of Course Change Possibility

Recent Developments in Asteroid Monitoring and Deflection

Relevance to Human Survival

Mining Apophis

Guss Rigne

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Revised Estimated Likelyhood

Estimated Mass

Realistic Assessment of Course Change Possibility

Recent Developments in Asteroid Monitoring and Deflection

Relevance to Human Survival

Mining Apophis

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