According to projections, it is highly possible that the California Central Valley Aquifer and the High Plains (Ogallala) Aquifer in Kansas, eastern Colorado, and the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles could run dry in the future. Here are the key points:
- The California Central Valley Aquifer is being depleted at a rate of about 1.2 inches per year, with an estimated 20.3 cubic kilometers (4.87 cubic miles) of water lost between 2003 and 2010. [7][8]
- Parts of the Ogallala Aquifer in western Texas have seen water levels drop by more than 30 meters (100 feet) over the past 60 years. About a third of the total depletion of the Ogallala has occurred in just 4% of the aquifer, mainly in Kansas and Texas. [7]
- The High Plains (Ogallala) Aquifer provides water to parts of eight different states, from Texas to South Dakota, and it supports many rivers and streams in the region. According to the search results, as the aquifer is being depleted faster than it can be replenished, streams and rivers are already drying up as a result. The report states that some streams are drying out at a rate of 6 miles per year, and a total of 358 miles of waterways have been lost over 200 square miles. [16]
- Climate change is exacerbating the depletion of these aquifers, with hotter temperatures, prolonged droughts, and reduced groundwater recharge in the southern regions. This is in contrast to the northern parts of the Ogallala Aquifer in Nebraska, which have seen relatively stable water levels. [7][8]
- Major institutional investors like Hancock, TIAA, and Gladstone Land have been rapidly acquiring permanent crop farmland in California, especially for water-intensive nut crops, and investing in deep wells and other water infrastructure to support this.[19] This has contributed to the depletion of groundwater in the region.
- Lack of regulation and unsustainable groundwater pumping practices, especially for water-intensive agriculture, are major contributors to the rapid depletion of these aquifers. Some regions have even set timelines for using up their remaining groundwater supplies. [9]
- The depletion of these critical aquifers would have severe consequences, including the collapse of agricultural economies, drinking water crises, and environmental damage. Recovering from such a scenario would require extensive, coordinated, and long-term efforts. [6][9][10]
- The USGS has projected that it is highly possible the California Central Valley Aquifer and the High Plains (Ogallala) Aquifer could run dry in the future if current unsustainable groundwater use continues.[17][18]
The available evidence strongly suggests that the California Central Valley Aquifer and the Ogallala Aquifer in the southern Great Plains are at risk of running dry in the coming decades if current trends continue. Urgent action is needed to address this looming crisis. [6][7][8][9][10]
If the California Central Valley Aquifer and the Ogallala Aquifer in Kansas, eastern Colorado, and the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles were to run dry, the consequences would be severe and the recovery efforts would be extremely challenging.
The decline of the High Plains (Ogallala) Aquifer could impact a very large population:
- The High Plains Aquifer underlies parts of 8 states – Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Texas, and Wyoming – and covers an area of about 175,000 square miles. [11][12][14]
- The aquifer provides drinking water to 82% of the people who live within its boundaries. [13]
- The High Plains region supplies approximately one-fourth of the nation’s agricultural production. [13] The crops grown in this region, which rely heavily on irrigation from the aquifer, provide significant amounts of feed to Midwest cattle operations that account for 40% of U.S. feedlot beef output. [13]
A very large population, likely in the millions, relies on this critical water resource for drinking water, agriculture, and other economic activities. The depletion of the aquifer could force many people to relocate to areas with more reliable water supplies. [11][12][14]
Here is a step-by-step outline of what could happen:
The Aftermath of Aquifer Depletion
1. Widespread Agricultural Collapse: Without access to groundwater, farmers in these regions would be unable to irrigate their crops, leading to massive crop failures and the collapse of the agricultural economies that rely on these aquifers. This would cause severe food shortages and economic devastation across the United States and globally. [1][4][5]
2. Drying of Surface Water Sources: As groundwater levels drop, surface water sources like rivers, streams, and lakes that are fed by the aquifers would also dry up, further exacerbating water scarcity. This would impact ecosystems, wildlife, and any remaining agricultural activities. [4]
3. Drinking Water Crisis: Millions of people in these regions rely on the depleted aquifers for their drinking water supply. With the aquifers gone, communities would face an acute drinking water crisis, leading to public health emergencies. [4]
Recovery Efforts
4. Emergency Water Rationing: Authorities would need to implement strict water rationing measures, severely limiting water use for agriculture, industry, and residential purposes to preserve the remaining water supplies for drinking and sanitation. This would cause immense economic and social disruption. [1][4]
5. Transition to Dryland Farming: Farmers would have to shift to dryland farming techniques that rely solely on rainfall, rather than irrigation. This would require major changes in crop selection, farming practices, and yields, causing further economic hardship. [5]
6. Aquifer Recharge and Storage: Long-term efforts would focus on artificial groundwater recharge, using surface water, recycled wastewater, or desalinated seawater to slowly replenish the depleted aquifers. This would be an extremely costly and time-consuming process, taking decades to have a meaningful impact. [4] Investments in new water purification and desalination technologies, like graphene-based desalination, can help create more usable water supply, especially in water-scarce regions. [20]
7. Infrastructure Overhaul: The region would need to invest heavily in new water infrastructure, such as pipelines, desalination plants, and water recycling facilities, to provide alternative water sources and reduce reliance on the depleted aquifers. This would require significant government funding and planning. [4]
8. Population Relocation: In the most severe cases, entire communities may need to be relocated to areas with more reliable water supplies, causing massive social and economic disruption. [4]
The depletion of these critical aquifers would be a catastrophic scenario, with far-reaching consequences for agriculture, the environment, and human communities. Recovering from such a crisis would require an unprecedented, coordinated, and sustained effort at the local, state, and national levels, with a focus on water conservation, infrastructure development, and long-term aquifer restoration. [1][4][5]
Citations
[1] https://www.drought.gov/dews/southern-plains
[2] https://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/1130/report.pdf
[3] https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/southern-plains-drought-status-update-2023-04-06
[4] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/08/28/climate/groundwater-drying-climate-change.html
[5] https://texasclimatenews.org/2012/06/29/aquifers-decline-spells-big-changes-in-panhandle-farming-ut-study-finds/
[6] https://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/1130/report.pdf
[7] https://texasclimatenews.org/2012/06/29/aquifers-decline-spells-big-changes-in-panhandle-farming-ut-study-finds/
[8] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/08/28/climate/groundwater-drying-climate-change.html
[9] https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/southern-plains-drought-status-update-2023-04-06
[10] https://www.drought.gov/dews/southern-plains
[11] https://19january2017snapshot.epa.gov/climate-impacts/climate-impacts-great-plains_.html
[12] https://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/1400b/report.pdf
[13] https://rrbwp.nebraska.gov/Reference/OCIA%20-%20Analysis%20of%20High%20Plains%20Resource%20Risk%20and%20Economic%20Impacts%20(2).pdf
[14] https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-ogallala-aquifer/
[15] https://www.americanbar.org/groups/environment_energy_resources/resources/trends/2022/farmers-depleting-ogallala-aquifer-because-government-pays-them-do-it/
[16] https://www.earth.com/news/high-plains-aquifer-drying/
[17] https://www.usgs.gov/publications/groundwater-depletion-and-sustainability-irrigation-us-high-plains-and-central-valley
[18] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-35582-x
[19] https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2023-wall-street-speeds-california-groundwater-depletion/
[20] https://killik.com/articles/why-michael-burry-of-the-big-short-is-investing-in-water/
