Annie Jacobsen is an investigative journalist and author of “Nuclear War: A Scenario” and many other books on war, weapons, government secrecy, and national security. She describes, from talking to people who know, how nuclear war would unfold. This includes the current US president alone making the decision and having six minutes to decide to launch retaliatory nukes and destroy the world. This would occur if missiles are detected from space as incoming, for example, from Russia. They are only visible in the first five minutes and the land based Russian missiles would take 26 minutes and 40 seconds to reach the US East Coast. For 75 years we have stayed alive in a world with two superpowers with nuclear weapons due to mutually assured destruction, both knowing that if they attack, neither would survive. Jacobsen makes the point that all too easily a misunderstanding could destroy the world the way things are currently. Watch the video on YouTube here:
The likelihood of nuclear war has been a significant concern, with humanity possessing about 13,410 nuclear weapons as of 2021, many of which are on hair-trigger alert. The modernization of nuclear arsenals by all nuclear countries has raised fears of a nuclear arms race. The Doomsday Clock, a symbolic representation of global existential threats, was moved forward to 100 seconds before midnight in January 2020 and to 90 seconds before midnight in 2023. Even a small-scale nuclear conflict between two countries, like India and Pakistan, could have devastating global consequences, with experts estimating the probability of complete human extinction by nuclear weapons at 1% and the probability of 1 billion dead at 10%[2].
The historical context of nuclear weapons, particularly the events surrounding the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki during World War II, played a crucial role in shaping the nuclear landscape. The Manhattan Project, established in August 1942, led to the first-ever nuclear test by the US on July 16, 1945. The decision to drop atomic bombs on Japan was made in the context of the Potsdam Conference in July 1945, where the terms for ending the war with Japan hinged on the nation’s acceptance of unconditional surrender. The devastation caused by the atomic bombings raised the specter, once the Soviet Union did its first nuclear weapon test in 1949 of Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) that defined global politics during the Cold War and beyond[3][6].
What Can You Do?
To help prevent nuclear war, people can take several personal actions. Here are some suggestions:
1. Educate yourself: Learn about the risks and consequences of nuclear war, and educate others in your community. This can help raise awareness and build support for policies that reduce the risk of nuclear conflict.
2. Advocate for policy change: Support organizations and campaigns that work to reduce the risk of nuclear war, such as the Back from the Brink campaign, which calls on the United States to lead a global effort to prevent nuclear war.
3. Contact your elected representatives: Write or call your members of Congress and urge them to support policies that reduce the risk of nuclear war, such as the No First Use Act.
4. Support international efforts: Support international efforts to reduce the risk of nuclear war, such as the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons.
5. Promote diplomacy: Encourage diplomatic efforts to reduce tensions between nuclear-armed states, and support initiatives that promote dialogue and cooperation.
6. Reduce the role of nuclear weapons in security policy: Advocate for policies that reduce the role of nuclear weapons in security policy, such as reducing the number of nuclear weapons, placing them on a lower state of alert, and implementing verification measures to ensure compliance with treaties.
7. Build resilience: Encourage efforts to build resilience in the face of nuclear conflict, such as developing water harvesting and recycling technologies, managing water conflicts and disputes through negotiation and cooperation, and supporting water governance and policy reforms.
These are just a few examples of personal actions that can help prevent nuclear war. By taking action, individuals can help build a safer and more secure world for all.
Citations
[1] https://sgs.princeton.edu/the-lab/plan-a
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust
[3] https://www.iwm.org.uk/history/the-atomic-bombs-that-ended-the-second-world-war
[4] https://www.energy.gov/lm/timeline-events-1938-1950
[5] https://www.icanw.org/nuclear_weapons_history
[6] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RDS-1
[7] https://preventnuclearwar.org/our-five-policy-solutions/
[8] https://www.icanw.org/take_action_now
[9] https://thebulletin.org/2024/03/risk-reduction-can-help-prevent-nuclear-crises-heres-how/
[10] https://www.ucsusa.org/nuclear-weapons/solutions
[11] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7228299/
