The Roswell crash was 77 years ago. I wasn’t alive when it happened, but I got interested in after I got out of college. Over the years, I’ve done quite a bit of informal research into it, including spending a lot of time talking to people, going to Roswell in person a few times, listening to interviews, watching documentaries and reading books. I feel like I know the story pretty well, and also, where it gets squirly and diverges.
Roswell Crash Timeline and Context
To understand Roswell, it is best to review the timeline of UFOlogy. It is easy to get lost in the details, so practice just skimming everything to get an overview. Interesting things appear if you do this.
Top Theories
Which of the top theories about the famous Roswell UFO crash(es) do you believe?
1. Weather Balloon Explanation: Initially, the U.S. military claimed that the debris recovered near Roswell was from a “flying disc,” but later retracted the statement, attributing it to a weather balloon[1][2].
2. Crashed Alien Spacecraft: Some believe that the debris was from an alien spacecraft, supported by claims of alien bodies and materials not of Earthly origin[2][3]. Some believe that the Roswell incident involved a crashed alien spacecraft due to accounts of unusual materials and alleged alien bodies recovered at the site. Witnesses, including military personnel, reported findings that seemed otherworldly, fueling beliefs in extraterrestrial involvement.
3. Russian Psyop: A less popular theory suggests Soviet involvement in Roswell, proposing scenarios like a downed spy plane[3]. Annie Jacobsen’s book, “Area 51,” suggested the Soviets stirred up the Roswell UFO incident in 1947 by sending flying disks into New Mexico with child-size aviators on board. She used a single unnamed source, who worked at EG&G at Area 51. The source said the Soviets dispatched flying-disk drone aircraft from a mothership flying near Alaska.
4. Project Mogul Balloon Crash: The official explanation for the Roswell incident, as provided by the U.S. government, is that the debris recovered near Roswell, New Mexico, in 1947 was from a high-altitude balloon as part of the top-secret Project Mogul. Project Mogul was a Cold War initiative aimed at monitoring Soviet nuclear tests using high-altitude balloons equipped with listening devices. The debris recovered was associated with this classified project.
5. Flying Saucer Craze: The context of the 1947 incident was amidst a “flying saucer” craze where people reported seeing strange objects in the sky believed to be spacecraft piloted by aliens. This cultural backdrop influenced perceptions and interpretations of events like the Roswell incident. This theory can contain experimental aircraft by of several manufacturers operating at the time.
Data Scoring Method
When working on difficult answers, I collect a lot of data and give the different things scores. Here are the validity value scores I currently use. After a while, you start to get a picture and the points add up to show the most likley answer.
100 points: (=) Undisputed physical evidence or historical fact. 75 points: (£) Logical deduction from undisputed evidence/facts 50 points: (O) Witness report untainted trained/careful/credible observer 25 points: (o) Eye-witness testimony of untainted layperson 10 points: (+) Second hand information, unexposed to disinfo 2 points: (?) Unverified from researchers who also cite known facts 1 point: (~) Testimony after disinfo contact, coersion, or long time 0 points: (-) Imagination, rumors, unknown
1947 Roswell Crash Conclusion
To quote the one person I interviewed at the Little AleInn near Area 51 who I believe probably knows if anyone does, “What I think is not important.” Each person who is interested should review the available clues and decide. Is it aliens? The US Military? Ancient civilizations? Even if I did know, at this point I would not say, I would let you enjoy the process of discovery. Roswell is a classic American mystery.
Whichever theory you think fits the facts best, the Roswell incident remains a complex event with multiple theories and interpretations. The most widely accepted explanation is that the debris recovered from the crash site was from a high-altitude balloon called Project Mogul, which was part of a top-secret program to detect Soviet nuclear tests[1].
The U.S. government has repeatedly denied any involvement with extraterrestrials or UFOs, but the incident has become a significant part of UFO culture and has been the subject of numerous books, movies, and television shows[1].
Enjoy searching for the answer. You may find yourself along the way.
Citations
[1] https://www.britannica.com/event/Roswell-incident
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roswell_incident
[3] https://www.history.co.uk/articles/75-years-on-the-most-popular-roswell-ufo-theories
[4] https://sites.smith.edu/fys169-f19/2019/12/14/the-roswell-incident-conspiracy-into-the-unknown/
[5] https://media.defense.gov/2010/Dec/01/2001329893/-1/-1/0/roswell-2.pdf
[6] https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smithsonian-institution/in-1947-high-altitude-balloon-crash-landed-roswell-aliens-never-left-180963917/
[7] https://www.esd.whs.mil/Portals/54/Documents/FOID/Reading%20Room/UFOsandUAPs/RoswellReportCaseClosed.pdf?ver=2017-05-22-113519-430
[8] https://go.gale.com/ps/i.do?aty=open-web-entry&id=GALE%7CA17596045&issn=01498711&it=r&linkaccess=abs&p=AONE&sid=googleScholar&sw=w&userGroupName=anon~ffb32376&v=2.1
7 comments
Xeno, wasn’t there a wave of sightings during the mid to late 40s? Kenneth Arnold, much publicized sighting, was only one of many, if I remember correctly. (I wish someone would do some real archival research looking at old newspapers in libraries and put them online. That would be just too cool! But, that would take a lot of time.)
Whatever, lots of luck.
Speaking of which, I came across some documents (released in accordance to the FOIA, supposedly) concerning Barry Goldwater’s interest in UFOs. Goldwater, who was an elected member of Congress, was told, in so many words to mind his own business by yet an acquaintance when he asked about UFOs.
Yeah, I know, he was a Republican and a way too conservative one at that . . . so much for that bit.
Could you provide a caption for the photo of the aircraft? Its always best to do that when you are trying to make a point with a photo.
Thanks for the captions, and the new photos.
As we can see, it is impossible that what Arnold saw was a squadron of Horten Parabolae flying in formation. We can also see that the artists impression he is holding is also not what he saw. According to his own detailed description and his accompanying sketch, its pretty clear that what he saw was in fact what William Rhodes photographed.
Astonishing.
When you get right down to the raw facts, everthing comes together, no matter what the outcome. This is what real research does; it uncovers what really happened, and in this case, the non human manufactured ‘discs’ that Kenneth Arnold saw.
Why would Arnold pose with something that did not look like what he saw? Do you have any references about who created the photo he is holding and the circumstances there? You may be right, I just want to check it out because what you say does not seem obvious to me at all.
You know…after looking at that picture of the Horten Parabola for some time now, I am starting to have doubts.
Something seems off with the picture. My mind is triggering up little alarm bells to do with the focus and scale. I used to make model kits when I was younger, ‘ve spent many years looking at images of dioramas made by modellers that depict (mostly) ultra-realistic Tamiya model kits.
But something about the images always spoiled the realism of the modeller’s craft – the fact that no matter how hard you try, it is incredibly difficult to get a figure or vehicle who is only a few inches high look full-sized- mostly due to the depth of focus.
The image of the Parabola seems to not feel quite right. The size of the cockpit canopy would (assuming it is a small canopy to start with) suggest that the plane is rather large. But the sticking point is that if that is the case, the panelling that sticks up would seem to be quite raised – maybe half a foot. Which would cause all kinds of problems with aerodynamics.
And the ground upon which the plane is pictured, althouh pretty indistinct, looks like grass, but also looks out of scale with the plane.
There is just something about this image – the scale effects, the paint job and the overall reflectivity of the craft, the focus, the panel lines, the convenient lack of anything to denote scale, the strange angle of the image that would have to be taken fro a high tower – that make me think this is a model and not a full sized vehicle. Reminds me of a picture of a wood and paper remote control plane kit.
Is there anything to corroborate that this is an image of a full sized vehicle, or that it is at least a genuine image of either the Parabola or a miniature prototype from the time, and not just some modern mock-up? What is the provenance of the image?
Just my random musings…
Dammit, I just typed all that and then noticed the note about the Nazi UFO stuff being a hoax 🙂
Unless of course you mean that the Operation Paperclip stuff (and therefore the Horten Parabola) is real?
I have confused myself now! 🙂
There’s some theories on this, a blend of fact and fiction, in a new book by Cam Lavac called Majestic XII.
Majestic XII being the top-secret agency purported to have been setup by President Truman in the aftermath of Roswell.
Here’s his blog