Quantum computing is rapidly evolving, with several major players making significant strides in the field. Here’s an update on the current state of quantum computers, their development, technical challenges, and potential implications for AI:
Current Developments and Key Players
IBM
IBM has been at the forefront of quantum computing development. Their latest roadmap, extending to 2033, outlines ambitious goals:
- By the end of 2024, their Heron chip is expected to run circuits with 5,000 gates using error mitigation.
- The Flamingo chip, based on the Heron architecture, aims to push this to 15,000 gates by 2028.
- In 2029, IBM plans to introduce Starling, followed by Blue Jay in 2033, which will incorporate error correction for deeper circuits[3].
Google
Google achieved “quantum supremacy” in 2019 with its Sycamore processor, performing a task in 200 seconds that would take a classical supercomputer about 10,000 years.[7] Google’s 2019 claim of “quantum supremacy” with the Sycamore processor has since been challenged. Google initially claimed that their 53-qubit Sycamore processor completed a task in 200 seconds that would take a state-of-the-art supercomputer 10,000 years. However, this claim was quickly contested. IBM argued that the task would only take 2.5 days on a classical system like Summit, not 10,000 years.
New Quantum Advantage Claims: In 2023, Google scientists reported completing a task on their 70-qubit Sycamore that would allegedly take a classical supercomputer 47 years to finish[6]. It hardly needs saying that the 10,000 year claim about their less powerful 53-qubit Sycamore processor seems unlikely to be true given this new 47 year claim.
Other Players
Companies like Amazon, NVIDIA, and Alibaba are also investing in quantum computing technologies.
The focus has shifted from “quantum supremacy” to finding practical applications where quantum computers can provide a meaningful advantage. Experts now emphasize quantum advantage in specific, often narrow use cases rather than broad revolutionary changes[8].
Technical Roadblocks
- Error Correction: Quantum bits (qubits) are highly susceptible to errors. Developing effective error correction methods is crucial for building reliable quantum computers[3]. The most promising development in quantum error correction is the emergence of hardware-efficient strategies. AWS has introduced a new type of qubit that converts the majority of errors into “erasure errors,” which are easier to detect and correct. This approach could significantly reduce the overhead associated with error correction, potentially accelerating the path to practical quantum computers.[21]
- Scalability: Increasing the number of qubits while maintaining their coherence and reducing error rates is a significant challenge. The best hope for scalability lies in innovative qubit designs and architectures. Microsoft’s recent breakthrough demonstrates the ability to create more reliable logical qubits using fewer physical qubits. This development could make it easier to scale up quantum systems while maintaining their coherence and reducing error rates.[22]
- Quantum Decoherence: Maintaining quantum states for extended periods is difficult due to environmental interactions. Researchers are exploring various approaches to combat decoherence, with one promising avenue being the development of more robust qubit technologies. For instance, topological qubits, which encode information in the collective behavior of particles, are inherently more resistant to decoherence. While still in the early stages, this approach could lead to longer-lasting quantum states.
- Hardware Limitations: Developing stable and scalable qubit technologies is an ongoing challenge. The best hope for overcoming hardware limitations is the rapid progress in qubit technologies. Companies like IBM, Google, and others are continuously improving their qubit designs. For example, superconducting qubits and trapped ion qubits have shown significant advancements in stability and control. Additionally, the development of hybrid quantum-classical systems may allow for more practical near-term applications while full-scale quantum computers are being perfected.
Quantum Computing and AI
When quantum computers become powerful enough to run AI algorithms effectively, we can expect several significant changes:
- Exponential Speed-up: Quantum computers could potentially solve certain complex problems exponentially faster than classical computers, leading to breakthroughs in areas like drug discovery, materials science, and financial modeling.
- Enhanced Machine Learning: Quantum machine learning algorithms could process vast amounts of data much faster, potentially leading to more accurate predictions and insights[5].
- Optimization Problems: AI running on quantum computers could solve large-scale optimization problems more efficiently, impacting fields like logistics, supply chain management, and resource allocation[5].
- Cryptography: Quantum computers could break many current encryption methods, necessitating the development of quantum-resistant cryptography.
- Simulations: Quantum AI could enable more accurate simulations of complex systems, from molecular interactions to climate models.
While the potential of quantum computing for AI is immense, it’s important to note that we are still in the early stages of development. Significant technical challenges need to be overcome before we can fully realize the potential of quantum AI[4].
Where is My Personal Quantum Computer?
Quantum computers are not yet widely available for personal ownership, but there are ways to access quantum computing resources. Here’s an overview of the current landscape:
1. Commercial Access: While you can’t buy a personal quantum computer outright due to their high cost and complexity, several companies offer access to quantum computing through cloud services. Notable providers include:
- IBM: Offers access to its quantum systems via the IBM Quantum Platform, allowing users to run quantum circuits online. They provide 10 free minutes of execution time per month for new users[12].
- Amazon Braket: This service from AWS allows users to experiment with quantum algorithms and run them on actual quantum hardware, including QuEra’s neutral-atom quantum computer[10][11].
- Microsoft Azure Quantum: This platform integrates various quantum hardware solutions and offers tools for developing quantum applications[11].
- D-Wave: Provides access to its quantum annealers through the D-Wave Leap cloud service, focusing on optimization problems[11].
2. Cost Considerations: The cost of accessing quantum computing services can vary widely. While some services may start at around $29 per month, extensive usage can lead to costs in the thousands of dollars per hour[9].
3. Public Access: Since 2016, public access to quantum computing services has been available, allowing individuals and organizations to experiment without the need for physical hardware[11]. IBM’s Quantum Experience was one of the first platforms to offer such access.
As the technology matures, the costs associated with quantum computing are expected to decrease, making it more accessible to a broader audience. However, the current state of quantum computing is still in its early stages, with significant technical challenges remaining.
How Do Consumers Know If Quantum Computers are All Hype?
There are a few key points to consider regarding how consumers can evaluate claims about quantum computers:
1. Transparency and peer review: Reputable quantum computing efforts publish their results in peer-reviewed scientific journals and make their methodologies available for scrutiny. This allows independent experts to verify claims.
2. Benchmarking: Specific quantum computing benchmarks have been developed to test and compare the performance of quantum systems. Results on these benchmarks can indicate if a system is demonstrating quantum behavior. Cloud access to quantum systems: Many major quantum computing companies like IBM, Google, Amazon, and Microsoft offer cloud access to their quantum processors. This allows users to run benchmark circuits and tests directly on real quantum hardware. Some Quantum Benchmark test include:
- Quantum Volume: Developed by IBM to measure the capability of quantum systems
- Randomized Benchmarking: A standard technique for characterizing gate fidelities
- Cross-Entropy Benchmarking: Used by Google in their quantum supremacy experiment
- Application-specific benchmarks: For algorithms like QAOA, VQE, etc.
3. Demonstrations of quantum advantage: Researchers aim to demonstrate quantum computers solving problems faster than classical supercomputers. While challenging, such demonstrations provide strong evidence of quantum capabilities.
4. Physical implementation: True quantum computers use quantum effects like superposition and entanglement. Details about the physical qubits and quantum gates can indicate if a system is genuinely quantum.
5. Limitations and error rates: Quantum computers currently have high error rates and limited coherence times. Systems claiming perfect qubits or unlimited coherence may be suspicious.
6. Expert consensus: The opinions of independent quantum computing experts and researchers can help evaluate claims.
7. Access for testing: Reputable companies often provide cloud access to their quantum systems, allowing users to run tests and verify capabilities themselves.
8. Realistic claims: Quantum computing is still an emerging technology with significant limitations. Overly grandiose claims about current capabilities should be viewed skeptically. Most experts believe large-scale, practical quantum computers capable of solving relevant problems are 10-20 years away, with estimates centering around the early to mid-2030s[19][20].
While it can be challenging for consumers to evaluate quantum computing claims, looking at these factors can help distinguish genuine quantum systems from hype or classical systems being misrepresented. Consulting independent experts and following developments in peer-reviewed literature are good ways to stay informed about the real state of quantum computing technology.
Where is my Desktop Quantum Computer?
Here’s a rough estimate: Desktop quantum computers for personal use: 30-50 years away (if ever) Key reasons for this timeline:
- Current quantum computers require extensive cooling and isolation systems.
- The focus is on developing large-scale quantum computers for specific applications, not personal computing.
- Experts predict practical quantum computers for complex problems will emerge in the 2030s, but these will be large, specialized systems.
- Significant technical challenges remain in error correction and qubit stability.
- The trend is towards cloud-based quantum computing access rather than personal ownership.
In other words, the big boys don’t want you to have that much computer power so they will hoard it by claiming it can’t be miniaturized. It only takes one genius in a garage somewhere to crack this open for the entire world. Get on it kids.
Read More
[1] https://quantumjavascript.app
[2] https://www.americanscientist.org/article/programming-your-quantum-computer
[3] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d5aIx79OTps
[4] https://phys.org/news/2020-01-output-quantum.html
[5] https://www.mathworks.com/products/quantum-computing.html
[6] https://thequantuminsider.com/2023/07/04/google-claims-latest-quantum-experiment-would-take-decades-on-classical-computer/
[7] https://www.science.org/content/article/ordinary-computers-can-beat-google-s-quantum-computer-after-all
[8] https://spectrum.ieee.org/quantum-computing-skeptics
[9] https://thequantuminsider.com/2023/04/10/price-of-a-quantum-computer/
[10] https://www.quera.com/press-releases/quera-computing-celebrates-one-year-anniversary-of-access-to-the-worlds-largest-publicly-available-quantum-computer-on-amazon-braket
[11] https://quantumzeitgeist.com/quantum-computers-for-public-use/
[12] https://www.ibm.com/quantum
[13] https://www.earth.com/news/quantum-computer-can-instantly-execute-a-task-that-would-normally-take-47-years/
[14] https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00224-018-9872-3
[15] https://www.maths.ox.ac.uk/system/files/media/Kashefi.pdf
[16] https://www.reddit.com/r/hardware/comments/14kiiot/is_quantum_computing_a_hoax/
[17] https://phys.org/news/2018-10-theorists-path-quantum-classical.html
[18] https://www.science.org/content/article/ordinary-computers-can-beat-google-s-quantum-computer-after-all
[19] https://www.forbes.com/sites/nokia-industry-40/2024/08/12/quantum-computing-is-coming-heres-what-needs-to-happen-first/
[20] https://cryptonews.com/exclusives/quantum-computers-may-break-bitcoin-by-2030-but-we-wont-know-about-it.htm
[21] https://aws.amazon.com/blogs/quantum-computing/a-new-building-block-for-error-corrected-quantum-computers/
[22] https://www.reddit.com/r/OpenAI/comments/1bv34xp/microsoft_has_quantum_computing_breakthrough_with/
