Scenario 1: The Oligarchy Holds Firm
Given human tendencies toward self-interest, greed, and the concentration of power, combined with entrenched oligarchic control over media and political institutions, it is highly likely that oligarchy will remain dominant for much of the century.
– Deepening Wealth and Power Concentration: The ultra-wealthy, driven not only by greed but often by a desire to shape the world into a positive image according to their vision, will continue to accumulate wealth and influence. Their control over major corporations and political funding will entrench their position.
– Manipulated Democracy and Media: The two-party system and controlled media will keep public attention focused on manufactured conflicts, distracting from the real power structures. This spectacle of partisan division will persist, maintaining the illusion of choice while limiting genuine reform.
– Erosion of Democratic Norms: Checks and balances will weaken as oligarchs influence or co-opt regulatory bodies, the judiciary, and law enforcement. Political institutions will serve elite interests, and dissenting voices will be marginalized or suppressed.
– Social Fractures and Polarization: As inequality grows and fairness erodes, social tensions will intensify. Yet, the oligarchic system’s control of narratives and information will prevent unified resistance, instead fostering division and mistrust among the populace.
– Technological Advancement Under Elite Control: Innovations in AI, biotechnology, and surveillance will accelerate but primarily benefit the oligarchs and their allies, widening social divides and consolidating control.
– Limited Reform and Resistance: Grassroots movements and reform efforts will face systemic barriers, but pockets of resistance will persist—often fragmented and co-opted. True systemic change will be difficult without a major societal upheaval.
In this scenario, the oligarchy’s persistence reflects both the neurological and psychological traits of its leaders (e.g., dispositional greed, impaired empathy) and the structural advantages they hold. The public may grow increasingly disillusioned but remain trapped in a system that rewards complacency and division.
Scenario 2: Democracy Reinstated and Vigilantly Protected
While more challenging given human nature and current power structures, a genuine democracy could be restored if citizens mobilize effectively and implement strong safeguards.
– Redistribution and Power Diffusion: Through reforms like campaign finance overhaul, anti-monopoly laws, and progressive taxation, wealth and power would be more evenly spread. This would restore a sense of fairness and shared stake in society.
– Robust Checks and Balances: Independent institutions would be empowered to hold leaders accountable, preventing concentration of power and corruption. Transparency and civic engagement would be prioritized.
– Inclusive Political Participation: Electoral reforms (ranked-choice voting, proportional representation) would broaden representation, breaking the two-party duopoly and encouraging diverse voices.
– Media Independence and Information Integrity: Efforts to decentralize media ownership and combat misinformation would improve public discourse and democratic decision-making.
– Social Cohesion and Justice: Policies would focus on reducing inequality, protecting rights, and fostering community resilience, addressing the human drive for fairness and cooperation.
– Technology for the Common Good: Innovation would be directed toward equitable access and societal benefit rather than elite enrichment.
However, this path requires overcoming significant obstacles: entrenched interests resisting change, psychological and social tendencies toward division and complacency, and the challenge of sustaining vigilance over time. It demands active, informed citizenry committed to defending democratic norms.
Realistic Outlook
Given the neuroscience of greed and power, the historical persistence of oligarchies, and the current control of media and political systems, the oligarchy is likely to maintain dominance for much of the near future. Yet history also shows that no system is permanent; crises, social movements, and shifts in collective consciousness can open windows for democratic renewal.
Ultimately, the future depends on whether the public can overcome division and apathy to build and protect institutions that reflect human values of fairness, cooperation, and shared prosperity—countering the natural tendencies that favor oligarchic rule.
In essence: The next century will likely be a struggle between entrenched oligarchic power, sustained by human nature and systemic advantages, and the persistent human aspiration for genuine democracy and fairness. The outcome hinges on collective awareness, action, and resilience.
Read More
[1] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0022053122000278
[2] https://dangoyal.substack.com/p/the-motivation-behind-the-oligarchs
[3] https://beezone.com/current/40808.html
[4] https://www.ipcinfo.org/fileadmin/user_upload/research_extension/docs/US%20oligarchy%20%20.pdf
[5] https://brocku.ca/MeadProject/Dewey/Dewey_1922/Dewey1922_01.html
[6] https://www.reddit.com/r/CapitalismVSocialism/comments/kr16qg/the_development_and_sustainment_of_an_oligarchy/
[7] https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/aps.1762
[8] https://www.psychologytoday.com/gb/blog/moral-landscapes/202010/historical-roots-polarization-democracy-or-oligarchy