The Sun Is More Active Than Scientists Anticipated: What We Can Do and What to Expect
The Sun can change our world in a moment’s notice. Often seen as a calm presence in our sky, our G-type main-sequence star, is currently undergoing a period of unprecedented activity that could have significant implications for life on Earth. As scientists have observed, this heightened solar activity is not only unexpected but also poses various challenges that we must be prepared to face.
Understanding the Solar Cycle
Solar cycles typically last about 11 years, transitioning from periods of low to high activity. We are currently in a cycle expected to peak in the second half of 2025. This solar maximum is predicted to be stronger than initially anticipated, which means we need to be ready for its effects on our technology and daily lives [2][6].
Potential Impacts of Increased Solar Activity
With the increase in solar activity, we may face several challenges:
- Communication Disruptions: Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) can cause radio blackouts and GPS signal interference, affecting everything from military operations to airline navigation.
- Power Grid Vulnerability: Geomagnetic storms can lead to power outages by overloading electrical grids, as seen in previous solar events.
- Satellite Damage: High-energy particles from solar eruptions can create drag on satellites, potentially leading to their malfunction or loss. For instance, a geomagnetic storm in February 2022 caused 38 Starlink satellites to fall from orbit [2][6].
- Auroras in Unusual Places: Increased solar activity enhances the visibility of auroras, which may appear further south than usual, providing a stunning visual display but also indicating heightened solar conditions.
Auroras: A Beautiful Yet Warning Sign
The heightened solar activity also enhances the visibility of auroras, with displays of the Northern and Southern Lights appearing further south than usual, even in states like Texas and Colorado. While these colorful displays are breathtaking, they also signal that we are experiencing increased solar conditions that could lead to disruptions [2][5].
The Carrionton Event
During the Carrington Event in September 1859, people around the world experienced a dramatic and unprecedented geomagnetic storm triggered by a massive solar flare observed by astronomer Richard Carrington. The event caused telegraph systems to fail, with operators reporting electric shocks and even sparks jumping from their equipment, leading to some telegraph lines catching fire. The auroras, usually confined to polar regions, were visible as far south as the Caribbean and Hawaii, stunning many who had never seen such displays before. Some individuals mistook the bright skies for dawn, prompting birds to sing as if morning had arrived. The disruption was widespread; nearly half of the telegraphic stations in the United States were affected, and operators found they could send messages using only the auroral currents, even with their batteries unplugged. This extraordinary event not only showcased the power of solar activity but also marked a significant moment in understanding the relationship between solar phenomena and Earth’s magnetic environment [25][26][28].
What if it Happened Today?
If a solar storm of the same magnitude as the Carrington Event were to occur today, the consequences could be catastrophic for our highly interconnected and technology-dependent society. Estimates suggest that such an event could lead to widespread power outages lasting for years due to damage to electrical infrastructure, particularly extra-high-voltage transformers that are difficult to replace. A study by Lloyd’s of London projected potential economic losses of up to $2.6 trillion in the U.S. alone, with global blackouts affecting critical services like banking, telecommunications, and emergency response systems. Additionally, the internet could face significant disruptions, potentially leading to what some have termed an “internet apocalypse,” as satellites malfunction and ground-based communication systems fail. Air travel would also be severely impacted, with global flight cancellations due to heightened radiation exposure at high altitudes, and GPS systems could become unreliable, complicating navigation and logistics. The cumulative effect of such a solar storm could set back modern civilization by decades, highlighting the urgent need for preparedness and mitigation strategies against solar weather events
How Much Warning?
When a coronal mass ejection (CME) is detected, scientists can provide varying degrees of warning time before it impacts Earth. On average, a CME can take anywhere from 15 minutes to several days to reach our planet, depending on its speed and trajectory. Recent advancements in space weather forecasting have improved our ability to predict the speed and arrival time of CMEs, even before they fully erupt from the Sun. For instance, researchers have identified specific characteristics of active regions on the Sun that can indicate when a CME is likely to occur and how fast it will travel [11]. This means that, in some cases, we could receive alerts hours to days in advance, allowing for better preparation for potential disruptions to technology and infrastructure on Earth [12][13]. However, not all CMEs are directed toward Earth, and the timing of their impacts can still be uncertain, depending on their interaction with the Earth’s magnetic field [10][13].
Duration of Event
The duration of the energy of a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) impacting Earth can vary significantly. During the Carrington Event of 1859, the combination of the solar flare and the subsequent coronal mass ejection (CME) electrified the Earth for approximately 5 minutes. This intense period of electromagnetic activity caused significant disruptions, including widespread auroras and disturbances in telegraph systems worldwide
- Immediate Electrification: The initial electrification effects, similar to those experienced during the Carrington Event, could last from a few minutes to several hours. This includes the immediate impact of the CME as it interacts with Earth’s magnetic field.
- Geomagnetic Storm Duration: The overall geomagnetic storm caused by a significant CME can last from several hours to several days. For instance, the Carrington Event’s geomagnetic effects were noted to have persisted for about 17.6 hours before subsiding significantly.
How Deep?
To protect electronics from a Carrington-level Coronal Mass Ejection (CME), burying them underground can provide a degree of shielding from electromagnetic interference. However, the exact depth required for effective protection varies based on several factors, including soil conductivity, the strength of the CME, and the type of electronics being protected.
Recommended Depth for Protection
1. General Guidelines / 3 to 10 Feet: A common recommendation is to bury electronics at a depth of at least 3 to 10 feet. This depth can help reduce the intensity of electromagnetic fields generated by a CME, as the soil acts as a natural shield.
2. Soil Type Considerations:
– Conductive Soils: In areas with highly conductive soils (like clay), a shallower depth may suffice, as the soil can dissipate electromagnetic energy more effectively.
– Non-conductive Soils: In sandy or rocky soils, deeper burial may be necessary to achieve similar protective effects.
3. Electromagnetic Shielding / Faraday Cages: In addition to burial, placing electronics inside Faraday cages can significantly enhance protection. These cages can block electromagnetic fields and are effective even at shallower depths.
4. Environmental Factors / Moisture Levels: Wet soil can enhance conductivity, potentially requiring less depth for effective shielding. Conversely, dry soils may necessitate deeper burial.
While burying electronics 3 to 10 feet underground can provide some protection against a Carrington-level CME, additional measures such as using Faraday cages and considering soil type and moisture levels are crucial for maximizing safety. Ultimately, the best approach combines physical protection measures with strategic planning to ensure readiness for such rare but potentially devastating solar events.
Personal Preparedness Checklist for CME
While we cannot control solar activity, there are proactive steps we can take to mitigate its impacts:
Make a habit of checking News Headlines Daily.
Follow updates from NOAA regarding solar activity.
Visit the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center website weekly.
Set up email alerts for solar activity notifications.
Monitor NASA for potential impacts of solar events.
Follow NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory on social media.
Check NASA’s website for news releases on solar storms.
Subscribe to alerts for space weather notifications.
Download a space weather app on your smartphone.
Join online forums or groups focused on space weather.
Prepare an emergency kit with essentials:
Include at least a 72-hour supply of non-perishable food.
Store a minimum of one gallon of water per person per day.
Refresh and check your supplies weekly.
Add a first aid kit with necessary medications.
Include a flashlight, batteries, and a multi-tool.
Have a Go-bag with essentials handy.
Acquire backup power sources:
Research and purchase a generator if necessary.
Test your generator to ensure it works properly.
Make sure you have fuel stored for the generator.
Inventory batteries and ensure they are fully charged.
Develop a family emergency communication plan:
Designate a meeting place in case of evacuation.
Share contact information for all family members.
Discuss how to communicate if cell service is down.
Use surge protectors for electronic devices:
Purchase high-quality surge protectors for all sensitive devices.
Ensure surge protectors are installed and functioning properly.
Invest in Fire Extinguishers that work for electronics
Have a quick access wire-free, electronics free area
Invest in Faraday cages for sensitive equipment:
Research and purchase commercially available Faraday cages.
Alternatively, create DIY Faraday cages using metal containers.
Store important electronics in shielded containers:
Wrap devices in aluminum foil and place them inside a cardboard box.
Use a metal trash can lined with insulating material.
Regularly back up critical data:
Use external hard drives or DVDs for backups.
Schedule backups at least once a month.
Store backups in a safe, dry location away from electronics.
Establish alternative communication methods:
Identify and test traditional landlines.
Ensure all family members have a list of emergency contacts.
Identify pre-arranged meeting points:
Choose locations that are easily accessible to all family members.
Practice meeting at these locations during family outings.
Stay connected with local emergency management agencies:
Attend community preparedness meetings or workshops.
Follow local agencies on social media for updates.
Understand local plans for responding to solar storm impacts:
Review your community’s emergency response plan.
Ask questions about specific preparations for solar events.
By taking these precautions, you can significantly reduce the risk of damage to your technology from solar storms and ensure that you are prepared for any disruptions they may cause.
A Narrative Example
Caveman Reset Event
The day began like any other, but the air was thick with anticipation, a palpable tension that hinted at the chaos to come. I had prepared for this moment, albeit modestly, knowing that a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was forecasted to hit Earth. My supplies were meticulously organized: non-perishable food stacked neatly in the pantry, water jugs filled to the brim, and warm blankets folded on the couch, ready to ward off the chill of uncertainty. I had even set up a plan to contact my neighbors, ensuring we could support each other in case of emergencies. My backup technology was tucked away in Faraday bags and makeshift cages, each item a small fortress against the impending storm. Little did I know that the calm before the storm would soon erupt into chaos, turning my home into a battleground against nature’s fury.
Without warning, the world outside transformed in an instant. The first sign of trouble came when the Internet went down, plunging me into an eerie silence that felt almost suffocating. My heart raced as I peered out the window, only to see blue flames dancing along the power lines like malevolent spirits. The sight was surreal, a flickering ballet of electric fire illuminating the darkening sky, casting strange shadows across my living room. Panic surged through me as I realized the gravity of the situation. I could hear the distant wail of a hand-cranked warning siren, its sound echoing ominously through the neighborhood, a herald of the chaos that was unfolding. The serene life I had taken for granted was unraveling before my eyes.
Instinct kicked in, and I grabbed the fire extinguisher, rushing outside to confront the flames threatening my home. The smell of burning plastic and singed wires filled the air, mixing with the acrid scent of smoke that clawed at my throat. I moved quickly, extinguishing local spot fires that had ignited on the wooden fence and the dry grass nearby. Could I use the garden hose? No, with the power out, there was no water pressure. Each spray of the extinguisher felt like a small victory against the encroaching disaster, but the battle was far from over. As I turned back toward the house, my eyes fell on my cell phone in the window, now glowing ominously with a blue flame, a stark reminder of how quickly our reliance on technology could turn into a liability. I rushed inside and doused the flames, my heart pounding with adrenaline. Luckily, the wires inside my house were not catching fire, probably due to the insulation, but the danger was far from over.
The electric burning smell intensified, wrapping around me like a suffocating blanket. I could hear the crackling of wires and the distant sounds of chaos from the neighborhood. My neighbors were likely experiencing their own battles against the flames and the unknown, their cries and shouts blending into a cacophony of fear and urgency. I felt a surge of helplessness but also a flicker of determination. I had prepared for this moment, and I had to stay focused. I turned my gaze to the sky, where the auroras danced across the horizon, painting the early evening sky in vibrant greens and purples. It was a breathtaking sight, a cosmic display that reminded me of both the beauty and terror of nature. The auroras, a direct result of the CME, served as a haunting reminder of the power of the universe and our vulnerability beneath it.
As the reality of the situation settled in, I realized that this was more than just a technological failure; it was a reset of everything I had known. The world I had inhabited was slipping away, replaced by a primal struggle for survival. I took a deep breath, grounding myself in the present. I had food, water, and warmth. I had the will to survive and the knowledge to adapt. In that moment, I understood that I was not just a victim of circumstance; I was a participant in a new reality. The Caveman Reset Event had begun, and I was ready to embrace the challenges ahead, determined to navigate this new world with resilience and courage.
Part II The Aftermath
One ray of hope pierced through the chaos of my thoughts: only the half of our planet facing the sun would be completely fried. While the immediate devastation was undeniable—wires melted, transformers fried, and electronics rendered useless—our technologies still existed beyond the reach of the CME’s wrath. I reminded myself that these advancements were not confined to my neighborhood or even my country; they spanned the globe. The knowledge, the blueprints, and the innovations that had propelled humanity forward would not be lost forever. This realization ignited a flicker of determination within me, a reminder that we had weathered storms before and could rise again.
As I stood in the dim light of my home, the reality of the situation began to settle in. I knew I had to assess the near-term threats and devise strategies to survive in this new world. First and foremost, I needed to secure my immediate environment. I checked the perimeter of my property, ensuring that the fires were fully extinguished and that no embers lingered to reignite. The smell of smoke still hung in the air, a reminder of the chaos that had erupted just hours before. I took stock of my supplies, mentally cataloging what I had on hand: food, water, blankets, and the fire extinguisher that had served me well.
Next, I needed to consider my communication plan. With the Internet down and cell networks likely out for months to years, reaching out to my neighbors physically was crucial. I had prepared a list of their names and addresses, and I resolved to visit them in person. We would need to come together, pooling our resources and knowledge to navigate the uncertain days ahead. I grabbed a flashlight, the batteries still intact, and stepped outside into the cool evening air. The auroras still danced above me, a stunning yet eerie backdrop to the unfolding reality.
As I walked through the neighborhood, I noticed the signs of chaos everywhere: shattered glass from blown-out windows, fallen branches, and the distant sounds of people shouting. I approached my neighbor’s house, knocking firmly on the door. After a moment, it creaked open, revealing a weary but determined face. We exchanged quick assessments of our situations, and I felt a sense of camaraderie forming. Together, we could tackle the challenges that lay ahead.
We discussed our next steps, prioritizing immediate needs such as securing food and water sources. I suggested we form a small community group, a network of support to help each other in the coming weeks. Keeping people calm, connected, focused and busy on purposeful survival tasks would be one of our most useful activities. We would need to scavenge for supplies, check on the elderly in our area, and establish a watch system for safety. As we formulated our plans, I felt a renewed sense of purpose. The aftermath of the CME had transformed our lives, but it had also ignited a spark of resilience within us. We were no longer isolated individuals; we were a community, ready to face the challenges of this new reality together.
Conclusion
As we navigate this period of increased solar activity, being proactive and prepared can help us mitigate potential disruptions. By staying informed and taking practical steps, we can better protect ourselves and our technology from the unpredictable forces of the Sun. While the beauty of solar phenomena like auroras can be captivating, understanding their implications is essential for our safety and well-being [6].
Read More
[1] https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-activity/top-25-sunspot-regions/year/2024.html
[2] https://helioforecast.space/solarcycle
[3] https://www.aol.com/see-northern-lights-california-light-133000246.html
[4] https://testbed.swpc.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/2024-01/solar_cycle_experimental_prediction_validation.pdf
[5] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/noaa-forecasts-quicker-stronger-peak-solar-activity
[6] https://www.weather.gov/news/201509-solar-cycle
[7] https://www.maine.gov/future/sites/maine.gov.future/files/inline-files/STS_2024_digital.pdf
[8] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression
[9] https://www.earth.com/news/noaa-issues-severe-geomagnetic-storm-watch-first-time-since-2005/
[10] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronal_mass_ejection
[11] https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2024/07/240719123847.htm
[12] https://www.newsweek.com/geomagnetic-storm-warning-coronal-mass-ejection-1899232
[13] https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/help/how-do-we-know-if-a-cme-is-earth-directed-and-when-it-s-going-to-arrive.html
[14] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings
[15] https://cosmosmagazine.com/people/next-big-thing-increasing-warning-time-for-space-weather/
[16] https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/CMEscoreboard/
[17] https://todayshomeowner.com/solar/guides/how-to-protect-your-home-from-solar-flares-and-solar-storms/
[18] https://www.howtogeek.com/how-to-protect-your-tech-from-solar-flares-and-if-you-really-need-to/
[19] https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/space/how-we-ll-safeguard-earth-solar-storm-catastrophe-n760021
[20] https://www.instructables.com/Protecting-Your-Electronics-From-EMP-and-Solar-Sto/
[21] https://testbed.swpc.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/2024-01/solar_cycle_experimental_prediction_validation.pdf
[22] https://www.maine.gov/future/sites/maine.gov.future/files/inline-files/STS_2024_digital.pdf
[23] https://www.reddit.com/r/AskScienceDiscussion/comments/16ca0aj/how_to_protect_my_house_against_solar_flare_like/
[24] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression
[25] https://www.space.com/the-carrington-event
[26] https://www.livescience.com/carrington-event
[27] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yJldkaIZ2Os
[28] https://earthsky.org/human-world/carrington-event-1859-solar-storm-effects-today/
[29] https://www.swsc-journal.org/articles/swsc/pdf/2013/01/swsc130015.pdf
[30] https://www.astronomy.com/science/a-large-solar-storm-could-knock-out-the-internet-and-power-grid-an-electrical-engineer-explains-how/
[31] https://www.newsweek.com/geomagnetic-storm-warning-coronal-mass-ejection-1899232
[32] https://cosmosmagazine.com/people/next-big-thing-increasing-warning-time-for-space-weather/
[33] https://www.livescience.com/carrington-event
[34] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrington_Event
[35] https://earthsky.org/human-world/carrington-event-1859-solar-storm-effects-today/
[36] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yJldkaIZ2Os
[37] https://www.skyatnightmagazine.com/space-science/carrington-event-today
[38] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/how-do-solar-storms-affect-electronics-gps-power-grid-internet/
[39] https://earthsky.org/human-world/will-solar-flares-destroy-modern-civilization-carrington-event-today/
[40] https://www.newsweek.com/geomagnetic-storm-warning-coronal-mass-ejection-1899232
[41] https://www.onlinesafetytrainer.com/a-guide-for-preparing-your-business-for-a-coronal-mass-ejection-event/
[42] https://www.afcea.org/signal-media/guarding-power-grid-against-natural-enemy
[43] https://backwoodssolar.com/learning-center/protect-your-electronics-with-our-emp-cme-kit/
[44] https://www.electronicdesign.com/home/article/21205762/coping-with-extreme-solar-storms
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[47] https://ez.analog.com/ez-blogs/b/engineerzone-spotlight/posts/protect-electronics-from-solar-flares
[48] https://www.fema.gov/sites/default/files/2020-07/fema_incident-annex_space-weather.pdf
[49] https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/CMEscoreboard/
[50] https://www.onlinesafetytrainer.com/a-guide-for-preparing-your-business-for-a-coronal-mass-ejection-event/
[51] https://backwoodssolar.com/learning-center/protect-your-electronics-with-our-emp-cme-kit/
[52] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5215858/
[53] https://www.swsc-journal.org/articles/swsc/pdf/2013/01/swsc130015.pdf
