Data in 2023 suggests that the Earth will run out of oil in the next 47 to 65 years. How do we get these numbers and what do they mean for the fate of humanity?
Here is a list of countries with the largest proven oil reserves as of 2021, according to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy. Please note that these figures are approximate and might change as new discoveries are made and existing reserves are depleted:
1. Venezuela – 303 billion barrels
2. Saudi Arabia – 298 billion barrels
3. Canada – 170 billion barrels
4. Iran – 155 billion barrels
5. Iraq – 145 billion barrels
6. Kuwait – 101 billion barrels
7. United Arab Emirates – 98 billion barrels
8. Russia – 80 billion barrels
9. Libya – 48 billion barrels
10. Nigeria – 37 billion barrels
11. United States – 36 billion barrels
12. Kazakhstan – 30 billion barrels
13. China – 25 billion barrels
14. Qatar – 25 billion barrels
15. Brazil – 15 billion barrels
These are just some of the countries with the largest proven reserves, and there are many more countries with varying amounts of oil reserves. It’s important to note that proven reserves are subject to change as technology advances, new discoveries are made, and existing fields are exploited.
Annual depletion rates for the oil reserves change frequently due to new discoveries, extraction rates, and consumption patterns. These figures are highly confidential and subject to variations based on technology advancements, political situations, and economic factors.
To obtain the most accurate and up-to-date information on the known proven world oil reserves, you can refer to reputable organizations such as the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the International Energy Agency (IEA), or the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
Keep in mind that certain reserves may not be known or publicly disclosed due to geopolitical or operational reasons.
The annual production rate, according to the 2022 BP Statistical Review, is 89,877,000 barrels per day, which includes crude oil, shale oil, oil sands, condensates. That makes world wide production (a marker of use) 32,805,105,000 or 32.8 billion barrels per day in the year 2022. {Source:BP}
Thus, a simple calculation: with 1,566 barrels in the ground, taking out 33 per year, gives us 47.45 years of oil left. That puts the end of world oil at the year 2070. Estimates varry. If we have 1.728 trillion barrels and extract at a rate of 26.4 billion barrels per year, we will have 65 years of oil left, putting the year futher out at the year 2088. So, if the data available is correct and use stays flat (it may increase with world population!) we should put all remaning resources into coming up with a working replacement, such as fusion and upgrading fuel infrastructure to a hydrogen economy.
Scenario: Global Oil Crisis in 2070
As the world’s oil reserves continue to dwindle, reaching critically low levels by 2070, the global economy undergoes a significant transformation, leading to a series of plausible world changes. While this scenario outlines a potential future, it is important to note that actual events could differ significantly.
1. Transition to Renewable Energy:
The scarcity of oil prompts nations worldwide to accelerate their transition towards renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, hydro, and geothermal power. Governments, industries, and individuals invest heavily in developing renewable technologies and improving energy efficiency. The global energy landscape undergoes a radical transformation, with renewable energy becoming the primary source for electricity generation and transportation.
2. Technological Advancements:
As the demand for alternative energy sources increases, there is a surge in technological advancements across various sectors. Electric vehicles (EVs) become the norm, with improved battery technology enabling longer-range capabilities. Governments provide incentives to promote EV adoption, leading to a substantial decrease in carbon emissions and a significant decline in the demand for oil-based fuels.
3. Shift in Economic Balance:
Countries that had traditionally relied on oil exports as a major source of revenue experience substantial economic challenges. To counteract this decline, resource-dependent nations redirect their focus towards developing new industries and diversifying their economies. They invest in sectors such as renewable energy, sustainable agriculture, technology, and tourism to support economic growth and stability.
4. Increased Cooperation:
The oil crisis acts as a catalyst for enhanced global cooperation among nations. Recognizing the mutual interest in finding sustainable alternatives, countries collaborate extensively in research and development, sharing knowledge and resources related to new energy technologies. International agreements and alliances are formed to promote energy independence and manage the equitable distribution of remaining oil resources.
5. Environmental Stewardship:
Awareness of the environmental impact of fossil fuels grows exponentially as the oil crisis unfolds. Governments implement stringent environmental regulations to limit the extraction and consumption of oil resources, aiming to mitigate the damage caused by past practices. Communities and individuals become more conscious of their ecological footprint, leading to a widespread shift towards sustainable practices and a stronger focus on conservation efforts.
6. Agrarian and Localized Economies:
Due to the rising costs associated with long-distance transportation and the decline of oil-derived fertilizers, agriculture experiences a significant transformation. Localized and community-based agriculture becomes a prominent practice, reducing the carbon footprint of the food industry. Urban farming, vertical agriculture, and hydroponics gain traction, ensuring a more sustainable and resilient food supply chain.
7. Geostrategic Reshuffling:
The declining importance of oil reshapes the geopolitical landscape. Nations that had previously wielded influence due to significant oil reserves and exports find their power dynamics shift. Countries possessing alternative energy sources or advanced technological capabilities gain substantial geopolitical advantage, while their influence on the global stage grows. Renewable energy becomes a key focus of international diplomacy and geopolitical negotiations.
While this scenario envisions a plausible future in the event of an oil crisis by 2070, it is essential to understand that technological advancements, policy decisions, and societal shifts can significantly alter the trajectory of real-world events.
Citations:
[1] https://www.brookings.edu/articles/reducing-us-oil-demand-not-production-is-the-way-forward-for-the-climate/
[2] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9765301/
[3] http://www1.eere.energy.gov/ba/pba/pdfs/wesmpaper.pdf
[4] https://www.iea.org/reports/clean-energy-innovation/innovation-needs-in-the-sustainable-development-scenario
[5] https://thebreakthrough.org/articles/oil-and-gas-assets-at-risk-impacts-of-declining-fossil-production-in-climate-scenarios-in-the-us