After exploring major world conflicts and their root causes, this article concludes that short of an overnight global change in human nature, the wars unfolding will continue until one side wins and takes the spoils or both/all sides lose, in which case both/all will be worse off for having fought.
Rising Geopolitical Tensions are a major world problem. Headlines indicate a rise in violence and conflict, particularly in the Middle East and Eastern Europe. For instance, at present there is a surge in violence in the West Bank and ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Yemen, which threaten global stability and peace. In general, geopolitical tensions stem from historical grievances, power struggles, and ineffective governance. In this article, we will get into specifics. The details of these conflicts may suggestion solutions.
Who is Fighting for What?
Here are the key distinguishable conflicts and stated interests.
1. Russia-Ukraine War
The ongoing conflict remains a central geopolitical issue, with increasing concerns about the potential partitioning of Ukraine. Russia’s military and economic advantages, coupled with waning support for Ukraine from the U.S. and NATO, exacerbate the situation. The war’s implications extend beyond military conflict, affecting global food and energy markets due to disruptions caused by the conflict[1][3].
Russia Stated Goals
– Demilitarization of Ukraine: Russia claims it aims to reduce Ukraine’s military capabilities to prevent future threats.
– Denazification: Russian leadership asserts a need to eliminate what they describe as neo-Nazi influences in Ukraine.
– Protection of Russian speakers: Russia states it seeks to protect the rights of ethnic Russians and Russian speakers in Ukraine, particularly in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
– Restoration of influence: A broader goal includes re-establishing Russia’s influence over former Soviet territories and restoring its status as a global power.
Ukraine Stated Goals
– Sovereignty and Territorial Integrity: Ukraine’s primary objective is to regain control over all its territories, including Crimea and the eastern regions currently held by Russia.
– Defend Democracy: Ukraine aims to uphold its democratic governance against what it sees as Russian aggression and authoritarianism.
– International Support: Ukraine seeks continued military and economic support from Western allies to bolster its defense capabilities.
– Accountability for War Crimes: Ukraine is focused on holding Russia accountable for alleged war crimes committed during the conflict.
2. Israel-Hamas Conflict
The recent escalation of violence between Israel and Hamas has raised fears of a broader regional conflict in the Middle East. This situation is complicated by Houthi missile attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, which could disrupt global maritime trade routes and increase insurance costs for shipping, affecting global supply chains and inflation[1][3].
Israel Stated Goals
– Total Destruction of Hamas: Israel aims to eliminate Hamas as a military and governing entity in Gaza, asserting that it seeks “total victory” over the group to ensure long-term security.
– Return of Hostages: A high priority for Israel is securing the release of hostages taken by Hamas during the October 7 attack, which left over 1,200 people dead.
– Prevent Future Attacks: Israel seeks to establish conditions that prevent any future attacks from Hamas or similar groups, aiming for a comprehensive security strategy in the region.
Hamas Stated Goals
– Resistance Against Israeli Occupation: Hamas positions itself as the defender of Palestinian rights and aims to resist Israeli control and military actions in Gaza and the West Bank
– Message Against Normalization: By launching attacks, Hamas seeks to disrupt any normalization agreements between Israel and Arab states, emphasizing that the Palestinian issue must be addressed.
– Solidarity with Palestinians: Hamas aims to portray itself as the protector of Palestinian interests, particularly in light of perceived betrayals by other Arab nations regarding the Palestinian cause.
– Sustainability of Governance: Despite military pressures, Hamas seeks to maintain its governance and influence within Gaza, asserting its role as a significant political actor among Palestinians.
3. U.S.-China Rivalry:
The geopolitical rivalry between the United States and China continues to intensify, particularly in areas such as technology and trade. This competition is expected to shape international relations and economic policies, with both nations racing to innovate and regulate artificial intelligence and other critical technologies[2][4].
United States Stated Goals
– Maintain Global Leadership: The U.S. aims to preserve its status as a dominant global power and counter China’s rising influence, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region.
– Support for Taiwan: The U.S. seeks to uphold its commitments to Taiwan under the One-China policy while maintaining strategic ambiguity to deter Chinese aggression.
– Promote Democratic Values: The U.S. emphasizes the promotion of democracy and human rights, viewing China’s authoritarian model as a challenge to the liberal international order.
– Economic Competition: The U.S. aims to protect its economic interests through measures such as tariffs and export controls, particularly in technology sectors where competition with China is fierce.
China Stated Goals
– Reclaim Regional Dominance: China seeks to establish itself as the leading power in Asia, aiming to reshape global governance norms to reflect its interests and values.
– Unification with Taiwan: China views Taiwan as a breakaway province and aims for its reunification with the mainland, considering this a core national interest.
– Economic Growth and Innovation: China aims to enhance its economic capabilities and technological advancements to compete globally, pursuing initiatives like “Made in China 2025.”
– Challenge U.S. Influence: China strives to counter U.S. dominance in international affairs, seeking to create a multipolar world where its influence is recognized and respected.
5. Middle Eastern Tensions
Beyond the Israel-Hamas conflict, tensions involving Iran and its proxy forces, such as the Houthis, pose risks of broader military confrontations that could involve major powers like the U.S. and disrupt vital shipping routes in the region, particularly through the Straits of Hormuz[3][4].
Iran Stated Goals
– Support for Regional Allies: Iran aims to bolster its influence by supporting groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis, viewing them as key allies in its resistance against U.S. and Israeli interests in the region.
– Opposition to Israel: Iran’s leadership has consistently called for the destruction of Israel, framing it as a central goal of its foreign policy.
– Regional Hegemony: Iran seeks to expand its regional influence and establish itself as a dominant power in the Middle East, often through proxy groups and military alliances.
Hezbollah Stated Goals
– Destruction of Israel: Hezbollah’s primary goal is the elimination of the State of Israel, as stated in its manifesto, which emphasizes a commitment to armed resistance until this objective is achieved.
– Support for Palestinian Struggles: Hezbollah positions itself as a defender of Palestinian rights and aims to support resistance against Israeli actions in Gaza and the West Bank.
– Regional Power Projection: Hezbollah seeks to enhance its military capabilities and regional standing, often engaging in confrontations with Israeli forces to assert its influence.
Houthis Stated Goals
– Opposition to Israeli Actions: The Houthi movement has declared its intent to target Israeli interests in response to the conflict in Gaza, framing their actions as support for the Palestinian cause.
– Control over Yemen: The Houthis aim to maintain their control over northern Yemen and assert their position as a significant regional player, often leveraging their military capabilities against perceived threats.
– Disruption of Maritime Trade: By targeting shipping in the Red Sea, the Houthis seek to inflict economic damage on Israel and its allies, asserting their influence over regional maritime routes.
U.S. Stated Goals
– Counter Iranian Influence: The U.S. aims to limit Iran’s influence in the region, particularly through sanctions and military support for allies like Israel and Saudi Arabia.
– Support for Israel: The U.S. has reiterated its commitment to Israel’s security, providing military aid and backing Israel’s right to defend itself against attacks.
– Stabilization Efforts: The U.S. seeks to stabilize the region by promoting diplomatic solutions and countering extremist groups that threaten its interests and allies.
The Truth: Two Monkeys Just Want the Same Banana
If you are sane and if you read the stated reasons thoughtully, you should have recognized that some of them seem crazy. Vague phrases like “regional standing” do not make sense on the face as valid reasons to invest huge amounts of money with the goal of killing another group other people to achieve them. Hatred and revenge are powerful motives, but wars do not pay for themselves. Well, not unless the war results in retaining or obtaining resources to offset expenses. Here are the prizes in each of the above conflicts, which make the whole hellish mess of war understandable, if not less repugnant.
1. Russia-Ukraine War
- Natural Gas Reserves: Ukraine has approximately 1.09 trillion cubic meters of natural gas, making it the second-largest holder in Europe, crucial for energy security in the region.
- Oil Resources: Ukraine’s oil production, concentrated in the eastern regions and the Black Sea, is another vital resource. Russia’s control over these areas allows it to dominate oil supplies and influence energy markets.
- Agricultural Land: Ukraine is known as the “breadbasket of Europe,” producing significant quantities of wheat, corn, barley, and sunflower oil. The eastern and southeastern regions are particularly fertile and crucial for global food supply, making them strategic targets during the conflict.
- Coal Deposits: Approximately 80% of Ukraine’s coal deposits, including all anthracite coal, are located in Russian-occupied territories, significantly impacting Ukraine’s energy resources.
- Mineral Resources: Ukraine is rich in minerals such as iron, titanium, and manganese, with the Kryvyi Rih basin being a key area for iron ore production.
- Black Sea Hydrocarbons: Control over Ukraine’s section of the Black Sea provides access to significant offshore hydrocarbon deposits, including natural gas, which is critical for both Ukrainian and European energy needs[2][4][5].
2. Israel-Hamas Conflict
- Gaza Strip: The Gaza Strip itself is a focal point of conflict, with its limited land area and dense population contributing to the humanitarian crisis and military engagements.
- Access to Mediterranean Sea: Control over coastal access influences trade and military strategy, impacting the flow of goods and humanitarian aid.
- Water Resources: Water scarcity is a critical issue in the region, with limited freshwater sources exacerbating tensions, particularly in Gaza.
- Agricultural Land: The fertile land in the region is essential for food production, which is often disrupted by conflict, affecting both Israeli and Palestinian agricultural outputs.
- Military Resources: Both Israel and Hamas have significant military capabilities, including advanced technology and weaponry, which are central to their strategies in the conflict.
3. U.S.-China Rivalry
- Technological Innovation: Both nations are competing for dominance in critical technologies, including artificial intelligence, telecommunications, and semiconductor manufacturing.
- Trade Routes: Control over maritime trade routes, particularly in the South China Sea, is vital for economic interests and military strategy.
- Natural Resources: Access to rare earth elements and other critical minerals is crucial for technological manufacturing and defense capabilities.
- Military Bases: Strategic military bases in the Indo-Pacific region enable both the U.S. and China to project power and influence.
- Economic Markets: The U.S. and China are vying for influence over global economic markets, impacting trade policies and international relations.
4. Middle Eastern Tensions
- Oil Reserves: Control over vast oil reserves in the region is a significant driver of conflict, influencing global energy prices and geopolitical alliances.
- Water Sources: Water scarcity and control over river systems, such as the Euphrates and Tigris, are critical for agricultural and domestic needs.
- Military Alliances: Support for various proxy groups (e.g., Hezbollah, Hamas) shapes the regional power dynamics and influences direct military confrontations.
- Strategic Shipping Routes: The Strait of Hormuz is a key chokepoint for global oil shipments, making it a focal point for military and economic interests.
- Cultural and Religious Sites: Control over significant cultural and religious sites in Jerusalem and elsewhere fuels tensions and conflicts, impacting local and international relations.
These resources are integral to understanding the motivations and strategies of the involved parties in each conflict. These tensions reflect a complex interplay of military conflicts, economic competition, and political uncertainties that are likely to shape the global landscape in the near future.
A List of Ineffective Solutions
Based on search results and analysis of current global conflicts, here’s a list of ineffective solutions that have been proposed or attempted:
1. Continued Escalation of Military Aid: Pouring more weapons and money into conflicts, particularly in Ukraine, has not brought the warring parties closer to peace[10].
2. Calls for Immediate Ceasefire Without Addressing Root Causes: Persistent calls for a ceasefire or ‘negotiated settlement’ without tackling underlying issues, such as Russia’s ambitions regarding Ukraine, are likely to be ineffective[6].
3. Territorial Concessions: Proposals for Ukraine to cede territory to Russia have become unviable, especially after Russia’s annexation of several Ukrainian provinces in 2022[7].
4. Referendums in Disputed Territories: Suggestions of holding referendums in occupied areas are impractical and unlikely to be accepted by all parties[7].
5. Relying on NATO Withdrawal Promises: The assumption that Russia would withdraw if NATO unequivocally renounced intentions to incorporate Ukraine is overly simplistic and ignores other motivations behind the conflict[7].
6. Negotiating Directly with Putin: Efforts to broker a compromise with Vladimir Putin, assuming he is amenable to peace, have proven ineffective due to his entrenched stance and strategic objectives[7].
7. Focusing Solely on Battlefield Solutions: The U.S. and allies’ focus on a battlefield solution to the war in Ukraine, without significant diplomatic efforts, has not brought the conflict closer to resolution[5].
8. Short-Term Military Strategies Without Long-Term Planning: Strategies that focus on immediate military gains without addressing long-term security and stability issues are likely to be ineffective[8].
9. Ignoring the Role of Civil Society and Democratic Institutions: Solutions that neglect the importance of supporting civil society, independent media, and democratic institutions in conflict-affected areas are less likely to lead to lasting peace[10].
10. Overlooking the Risk of Nuclear Escalation: Approaches that do not adequately address the increased risk of nuclear escalation between major powers involved in these conflicts are dangerously short-sighted[10].
These ineffective solutions often stem from oversimplified views of complex conflicts, failure to address root causes, or an overreliance on military solutions without adequate diplomatic and humanitarian efforts. On the other hand, pretending the conflicts are more complex than they are can be the reason they continue.
Russia-Ukraine List of As Yet Untried Solutions
Based on the search results and the current state of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, here’s a list of potential untried solutions that have not been fully explored or implemented:
1. Comprehensive Energy Transition Plan: Develop a detailed, long-term plan for transitioning away from Russian gas that includes accelerated renewable energy deployment, energy efficiency measures, and diversification of energy sources. This could reduce dependence on Russian resources without relying solely on LNG imports.
2. Regional Energy Cooperation Framework: Establish a new framework for energy cooperation between European countries, Ukraine, and potentially Russia, focusing on shared infrastructure, joint renewable energy projects, and coordinated energy policies.
3. Neutral Zone Buffer: Create a demilitarized, neutral zone along the Ukrainian-Russian border, monitored by international peacekeepers, to reduce tensions and provide a physical barrier between conflicting forces.
4. Economic Integration Initiative: Develop a comprehensive economic integration plan that includes Ukraine, EU countries, and potentially Russia, focusing on trade, investment, and economic cooperation to create mutual dependencies and reduce incentives for conflict.
5. Multilateral Security Agreement: Negotiate a new multilateral security agreement involving Ukraine, Russia, NATO countries, and other regional powers, addressing security concerns of all parties without NATO expansion.
6. Cultural Exchange Program: Implement a large-scale cultural exchange program between Ukrainian and Russian citizens to foster understanding and reduce animosity at the grassroots level.
7. Joint Resource Management: Establish a joint Ukrainian-Russian commission for managing shared natural resources, including gas transit infrastructure, with international oversight.
8. Phased Sanctions Relief Plan: Develop a detailed, step-by-step plan for lifting sanctions on Russia in exchange for specific, verifiable actions towards de-escalation and withdrawal from Ukrainian territory.
9. Regional Conflict Resolution Mechanism: Create a new regional body specifically designed to address and mediate conflicts in Eastern Europe, with representation from all involved parties and neutral observers.
10. Comprehensive Reconstruction Fund: Establish an international fund for the reconstruction of Ukraine, potentially including contributions from Russia, as part of a broader peace settlement.
These solutions have not been fully tried or implemented in the context of the current conflict and could potentially offer new approaches to resolving the ongoing issues. Realistically, the expectation is that the waring powers will continue to damage eachother until one wins or both are exhausted. Then, and only then, when each realizes it now has, or can not take the entire bananna (the above named resources), these untried solutions can be implemented, ending the conflict. Another option is that the conflicts escalates, and then the option of mutual destruction is another way the conflict can end.
Israeli-Hamas List of As Yet Untried Solutions
The deep-seated nature of the Israeli-Hamas conflict, characterized by mutual distrust, competing claims over resources, and existential threats, makes it extremely challenging to find a lasting solution. However, even in such complex and seemingly intractable conflicts, there are potential approaches that might not have been fully explored or implemented.
1. Change of Leadership Solution to the Middle East Conflict
It has been observed that the general population in most conflicts gets draw into fighting by their leaders. Interestingly, there aren’t all that many war hawks on each side of the Iraeli-Palestenian/Hamass conflict or the other major current world conflicts. A change in leadership across all involved parties could potentially have a significant impact on ongoing conflicts. In many cases, a shift in leadership could indeed lead to new approaches, fresh negotiations, and possibly even resolution of conflicts.
Here’s a brief analysis of how leadership changes could potentially impact some current major conflicts.
Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: A change in leadership on both sides could potentially break the current deadlock. On the Israeli side, replacing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right coalition with more moderate leadership could lead to a softening of policies on settlements and negotiations. For Palestinians, new leadership replacing the aging Mahmoud Abbas could bring fresh perspectives and potentially more unified representation, as the current split between Fatah and Hamas has complicated peace efforts[18][19]. New leaders less entrenched in historical grievances might be more open to compromise on key issues like borders, refugees, and the status of Jerusalem.
Russia-Ukraine War: A leadership change in Russia, replacing Vladimir Putin, could potentially alter the course of the conflict dramatically. A new Russian leader might be more open to negotiations and less committed to territorial gains in Ukraine. On the Ukrainian side, while President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been a strong wartime leader, a change could potentially bring a different approach to negotiations or military strategy. A change in U.S. leadership could significantly impact the extent and nature of American support for Ukraine. Without US support, it has been predicted that the Ukrainians could lose on the battlefield by the end of 2024. In that case, the war would end with new political lines being drawn.
On the global chess board, a change of leadership might not be useful. This might be as effective in a chess game as swaping a white marble queen for a white wooden queen on the same space. In other words, the resources are still there, and each side still wants them. The moves are basically the same.
2. The Meta-Parent Solution: International Trusteeship
Given the deep-seated nature of the Israeli-Hamas conflict, characterized by mutual distrust, competing claims over resources, and existential threats, one potential untried solution is the Meta-Parent Solution through International Trusteeship. This approach involves placing disputed territories under international trusteeship or administration, with the goal of managing resources fairly and preparing the ground for a future agreement. Here’s how this could be structured:
OBJECTIVES
Neutral Management: Ensure fair and unbiased management of disputed territories.
Conflict De-escalation: Reduce immediate hostilities and prevent further escalation.
Resource Allocation: Equitably distribute resources like water, land, and energy.
Trust Building: Create a neutral environment to foster trust between conflicting parties.
IMPLEMENTATION STEPS
Establishing Trusteeship
- Selection of Trustees: Appoint a trusted international body or coalition of countries to oversee the administration. This could include the United Nations or a specially formed international consortium.
- Mandate and Authority: Define a clear mandate for the trusteeship, including authority over security, resource management, and civil administration.
Security and Peacekeeping
- Neutral Peacekeeping Force: Deploy an international peacekeeping force to ensure security and prevent violence from both sides. This force would act as a buffer and maintain order.
- Demilitarization: Gradually demilitarize the disputed areas under international supervision to prevent further hostilities.
Resource Management
- Joint Resource Committees: Form joint committees comprising representatives from Israel, Palestine, and the trusteeship to manage shared resources.
- Equitable Distribution: Implement systems to ensure fair distribution of resources, addressing the needs of both communities.
Political and Social Framework
- Interim Governance: Establish interim governance structures under international oversight to manage day-to-day affairs and prepare for future self-governance.
- Conflict Resolution Mechanisms: Set up mechanisms for resolving disputes and grievances through dialogue and arbitration.
Long-Term Vision
- Roadmap to Self-Governance: Develop a roadmap for transitioning from international trusteeship to self-governance, with milestones and timelines.
- Education and Reconciliation Programs: Promote educational initiatives and reconciliation programs to build mutual understanding and reduce animosity.
CHALLENGES and CONSIDERATIONS
Trust and Acceptance
- Mutual Distrust: Both parties need to trust the international body overseeing the trusteeship, which may require significant diplomatic efforts.
- Resistance to External Control: There may be resistance from both sides to external control, requiring strong international consensus and support.
Legal and Political Complexities
- Sovereignty Issues: Addressing issues of sovereignty and territorial claims will be complex and require delicate handling.
- International Support: Sustained international support and commitment will be crucial for the success of the trusteeship.
Security Concerns
- Ensuring Compliance: Ensuring compliance from both Hamas and Israeli factions will be challenging and may require robust enforcement mechanisms.
- Preventing Sabotage: Preventing sabotage and ensuring the safety of peacekeepers and administrators will be essential.
This plan really adds nothing new to the current situation because most conflicts already involve proxy wars by “parent” countries with differing visions of who should get the banana. In other words, if you put an arbitrator in charge, the resources are still there and the various parties, human groups, still have their various interests in obtaining or controlling them.
Summary
If you goal is to end the conflict, that can be achieved by having one side win or having both sides become incapcitated, but at the heart of the matter is claim to resources and this will have to play out, just as if two wild animals wanted to be king of the same hill and the resources therein. The best advice for most is to stay out of the way of the animal leaders as they enact the predictable fight for dominance.
More Reading
[1] https://www.economicsobservatory.com/how-are-geopolitical-risks-affecting-the-world-economy
[2] https://www.ey.com/en_us/insights/geostrategy/2024-geostrategic-outlook
[3] https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en-us/posts/global-economy/geopolitical-economic-outlook-2024-china-global-security/
[4] https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/04/05/geopolitics-and-fragmentation-emerge-as-serious-financial-stability-threats
[5] https://www.blackrock.com/corporate/insights/blackrock-investment-institute/interactive-charts/geopolitical-risk-dashboard
[6] https://www.chathamhouse.org/2023/06/how-end-russias-war-ukraine
[7] https://thehill.com/opinion/international/3943927-impossible-and-possible-solutions-to-the-russo-ukrainian-war/
[8] https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/there-actionable-strategy-ending-war-ukraine
[9] https://www.cfr.org/councilofcouncils/global-memos/global-perspectives-ending-russia-ukraine-war
[10] https://www.fcnl.org/updates/2023-09/war-ukraine-and-urgent-need-diplomatic-solutions
[11] https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/blogs/natural-gas/041223-how-the-russia-ukraine-war-is-turning-natural-gas-into-the-new-oil
[12] https://thehill.com/opinion/international/3943927-impossible-and-possible-solutions-to-the-russo-ukrainian-war/
[13] https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/mar/20/ukraine-is-a-false-justification-americas-destructive-new-rush-for-natural-gas
[14] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia%E2%80%93Ukraine_gas_disputes
[15] https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/ukraine-war-tracking-impacts-german-energy-and-climate-policy
[16] https://www.hcamag.com/ca/specialization/leadership/israeli-palestinian-conflict-how-addressing-the-issue-can-impact-your-organisation/468495
[17] https://www.usip.org/sites/default/files/sr149.pdf
[18] https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-palestinian-leadership-crisis/
[19] https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/israeli-palestinian-conflict
[20] https://www.americanprogress.org/article/principles-and-positions-on-israel-and-palestine/
[21] https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/03/v-usloviyah-voennogo-bremeni-glavnye-voprosy-o-nastoyashem-i-budushem-rossijskoj-ekonomiki?center=russia-eurasia&lang=en
[22] https://www.businesstoday.in/latest/world/story/are-ukraines-vast-natural-resources-a-real-reason-behind-russias-invasion-323894-2022-02-25
[23] https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-crossroads-europe-and-russia
[24] https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/04/28/ukraine-war-russia-resources-energy-oil-gas-commodities-agriculture/
[25] https://www.dw.com/en/russia-ukraine-war-natural-resources-grain/a-66639269