The Electoral College system is the process by which the president and vice president of the United States are elected. Under this system, each state is allocated a number of electors based on its representation in Congress (House seats plus Senate seats). In most states, the candidate who wins the popular vote in that state receives all of the state’s electoral votes. [1][3][4]
Swing states, also known as battleground states, are states where neither the Democratic nor Republican candidate has a clear advantage, and the outcome is uncertain. [1][2][4] These states are the focus of intense campaigning by both parties, as winning them can be crucial to securing the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency. [1][3][5]
Swing states in 2024 are expected to include Nevada, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin.
The Electoral College system incentivizes presidential campaigns to focus their time, money, and resources on these swing states, rather than trying to run up the popular vote nationwide. [1][3][5] This is because the winner-take-all nature of the system means that a candidate can win the presidency without winning the national popular vote, as long as they win enough swing states to reach 270 electoral votes. [1][3]
The importance of swing states is that they can determine the outcome of the presidential election, even if a candidate loses the national popular vote. [1][3][5] This has happened several times in US history, most recently in 2016 when Donald Trump won the Electoral College despite losing the popular vote. [4]
Voter Impact in Swing States
- Voters in swing states have a much greater impact on the election outcome compared to voters in states that reliably vote for one party.
- For example, a vote in Ohio has been calculated to have 107 times the weight of a vote in California. [9]
- This has led to calls from some to reform or abolish the Electoral College system, which gives outsized influence to swing state voters.
Electoral College Reform
The Electoral College system was established by the U.S. Constitution as a compromise between electing the president by popular vote and having Congress choose the president. It has been the subject of ongoing debate and reform efforts in the United States.
Proponents argue it helps balance the interests of large and small states, maintains federalism, and preserves the two-party system. Critics contend it can result in a president being elected without winning the popular vote, and that it is undemocratic. The current system of swing states has significant consequences for the legitimacy of the political process.
There have been numerous proposals over the past two centuries to reform or abolish the Electoral College, though changing it would require a constitutional amendment which is a difficult process. Some reform proposals include awarding all of a state’s electoral votes to the popular vote winner (the “automatic plan”), or an interstate compact to have states commit their electors to the national popular vote winner.
Ultimately, while abolishing the Electoral College may be desirable to some, it faces significant legal and political hurdles. The future of the Electoral College system remains an open and contentious question in American politics.[15][16][17][18][19]
Original Intent of the Electoral College
The founders created the Electoral College as a compromise solution to the issue of how to elect the president. There were a few key reasons behind its creation:
1. Balancing the interests of small and large states: The founders wanted to ensure that both small and large states had a voice in the presidential election. The Electoral College system, where each state gets a number of electors equal to its representation in Congress, helped balance the power between small and large states.[22][23]
2. Addressing concerns about an uninformed electorate: Some founders were concerned that the average citizen at the time was not informed enough to directly elect the president. They believed the Electoral College, with electors chosen by the states, would ensure a more informed and objective decision.[20][22]
3. Preventing a tyranny of the majority: The founders were wary of a pure popular vote, fearing it could lead to a “tyranny of the majority” where the rights of minority groups could be trampled. The Electoral College was seen as a way to protect against this.[21][22]
4. Preserving state autonomy: Coming from a weak confederation, the founders wanted to preserve state autonomy while also building up federal power. The Electoral College allowed states to maintain a role in selecting the president.[22]
The Electoral College was a compromise solution designed to balance the interests of small and large states, address concerns about an uninformed electorate, prevent a tyranny of the majority, and preserve state autonomy in the new federal system.[20][21][22][23]
Conclusion
In summary, swing states are the battlegrounds that will likely determine the winner of the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Candidates will focus heavily on these states, and voters there will have an outsized influence on the final outcome.
Citations
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swing_state
[2] https://academy4sc.org/video/swing-states-the-power-of-the-purple/
[3] https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/14/opinions/president-swing-states-of-america-opinion-alexander/index.html
[4] https://www.polyas.com/election-glossary/swing-states
[5] https://www.brookings.edu/articles/why-are-swing-states-important/
[6] https://www.polyas.com/election-glossary/swing-states
[7] https://www.usnews.com/news/elections/articles/the-2024-swing-states-nevada-could-sway-the-presidential-election
[8] https://www.usnews.com/news/elections/articles/the-2024-swing-states-pennsylvania-could-sway-the-2024-election
[9] https://maristpoll.marist.edu/swing-state-voters-rule-why-every-vote-doesnt-count-the-same/
[10] https://th.usembassy.gov/swing-states-importance/
[11] https://www.brookings.edu/articles/why-are-swing-states-important/
[12] https://th.usembassy.gov/swing-states-importance/
[13] https://www.maynoothuniversity.ie/research/spotlight-research/10-swing-states-will-decide-us-presidential-election
[14] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swing_state
[15] https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/RL/RL34604/7
[16] https://www.brookings.edu/articles/its-time-to-abolish-the-electoral-college/
[17] https://stanfordmag.org/contents/should-we-abolish-the-electoral-college
[18] https://www.americanbar.org/news/abanews/publications/youraba/2019/october-2019/q–the-electoral-college–is-it-open-for-interpretation-by-the-c/
[19] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efforts_to_reform_the_United_States_Electoral_College
[20] https://sites.gsu.edu/electoralcollege/how-does-it-work/
[21] https://pfiffner.gmu.edu/files/pdfs/Articles/Electoral%20College,%20WH%20Studies%20.pdf
[22] https://www.thinkingnation.org/november-5-2020/
[23] https://theconversation.com/who-invented-the-electoral-college-147083
[24] https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/history
