The current world population is over 8 billion: 8,066,567,070 as of Sunday, October 15, 2023 according to the most recent United Nations estimates elaborated by Worldometer. [ref] The world population continues to rise by 80 million a year. [ref] Humans are consuming Earth’s resources at 1.6 times the sustainable rate. [ref]
It is sobering to realize that even at over 8 billion people, our entire population would be gone if reproduction were no longer possible.
As a side note, not every country is growing due to births exceeding death rate. While the overall population of the USA is still growing, this is due to immigration, people coming to live here from other countries. The number of births in the USA has been decreasing in recent years. According to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the number of births in the United States has been declining since 2007, with a few fluctuations. In 2019, there were approximately 3.75 million births, which represented a decrease from the previous year. This downward trend is attributed to various factors such as declining fertility rates, changes in family dynamics, and economic considerations.
How Did the USA Solve Excess Reproduction?
Tthe CDC shows the U.S. birth rate lower than the death rate in recent years. The reason for this can be attributed to a combination of factors:
1. Declining fertility rates: Over the past few decades, birth rates in the U.S. have been gradually decreasing. This decline can be attributed to several reasons, including changes in societal norms, increased access to contraception, delayed marriage and childbirth, and economic factors.
2. Aging population: The U.S. has a large aging population, with the baby boomer generation reaching older ages. As people live longer, the death rate naturally increases, contributing to a higher number of deaths.
3. Life expectancy: Overall, life expectancy has been on the rise in the U.S. due to advancements in healthcare, nutrition, and overall living standards. Consequently, people are living longer, which should actually contribute to a lower death rate. Thus, the first two answers are amplifed to overcome this fact, if it is true.
Is Over Population Even A Real Problem?
Overpopulation is indeed a real problem that the world is currently facing. The exponential growth of the global population has put strain on natural resources, led to environmental degradation, and increased competition for basic necessities like food, water, and shelter. It has also resulted in overcrowded cities, inadequate healthcare, and a rise in poverty levels. The challenges associated with overpopulation are not only limited to social and economic aspects but also have profound implications for the planet’s sustainability and well-being. It is crucial to address this issue through sustainable development, access to education, family planning, and responsible resource management to ensure a better future for humanity and the environment.
How Will Population Be Limited?
It is possible, even likely, that economic factors will place natural limits on reproductive rates in countries with currently growing populations. It is possible, although the likelyhood is unknown, that AI will be utilized to generate new ways to increase education and to change societal norms, leading to fewer births. It is unlikley, yet not impossible, that some new technology will be employed across the globe to reduce human fertility by stealth, chemically, with nano-technololgy, electromagnetically, or by other unknown means.
Just Stop?
If everyone stops breeding immediately, we can estimate the time to reach a human populatio nof 4 billion again based on historical population growth rates. Over the past few decades, the global population growth rate has been declining. The population is increasing, but the rate of increase over the past year is less. According to the United Nations’ data, the average annual growth rate between 2010 and 2020 was about 1.05%. Using this calculation, if every human stopped reproducing immediately, it would take from 39 years to reach a population of 4 billion again, and up to 90 years if we juggle to ensure that some people alive are still able to reproduce. However, it is important to note that this is a simplified estimate and does not account for other factors that could influence population dynamics.
Could end world hunger and war with only about one human lifetime of almost zero resproduction? This is currently unknown. It is very unlikley that we will find the organizational or individual will to ever find out, but the idea is there for an emergency. It stands as an interesting thought experiment, for now.