The worst possible solar flare effects can have devastating consequences on Earth, causing widespread power outages, damage to electrical systems, and disruption of communication networks.
Historic Solar Storms
Some of the most severe solar storms in history include:
1. The Carrington Event (1859): This was the first documented event of a solar flare impacting Earth, causing telegraph wires to catch fire and power lines to surge[11].
2. Halloween Storms of 2003: A series of powerful solar flares and coronal mass ejections from the Sun caused widespread blackouts, short-circuited satellites, and radio blackouts[11].
3. Bastille Day Event (2003): This solar storm caused some satellites to short-circuit, leading to radio blackouts and affecting Earth’s magnetic field[11].
4. X-Ray Sun Flare (2006): A powerful solar flare that overwhelmed the spacecraft sensor measuring it, reaching a peak strength of about X45[11].
Worst Case Projected
The worst-case scenario in simulations is a Carrington-magnitude event, which could kill millions, cause trillions of dollars in damage, and lead to a multi-trillion dollar disaster[12]. A doomsday-scale geomagnetic storm on the level of the Carrington Event could effectively send the world back to the Dark Ages[21]. Such an event would be a result of a massive solar flare and coronal mass ejection directed towards Earth, causing widespread destruction and long-term consequences[12]. In the worst case, these fluxes could damage the grid, leaving millions of people without power and facing months or years of rebuilding[15].
Ordinary Solar Flares
Solar flares are large eruptions of electromagnetic radiation from the Sun, lasting from minutes to hours. They result from the release of magnetic energy that has built up in the solar atmosphere. These flares emit intense bursts of electromagnetic radiation, including X-rays and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) radiation, which can cause various effects on Earth. The sudden outburst of electromagnetic energy travels at the speed of light, and any effect upon the sunlit side of Earth’s exposed outer atmosphere occurs at the same time the event is observed[1][3].
The effects of solar flares on Earth include ionization in the ionosphere, which can cause radio blackouts and disruptions to high-frequency (HF) radio communication[1]. Additionally, intense solar flares release high-energy particles that can cause magnetic field disturbances on the ground, leading to disruptions in power systems and impacts on GPS and radar signals[2]. The intensity of a solar flare is classified based on the peak emission in the 0.1 to 0.8 nm wavelength range, with X-class flares being the most powerful, followed by M-, C-, and B-class flares[3]. While solar flares can interfere with various technologies and systems on Earth, the ability to predict when a flare will occur is limited, although ongoing research aims to improve forecasting capabilities[4].
Solar Flare Impacts
Solar flares are intense localized eruptions of electromagnetic radiation in the Sun’s atmosphere, which can pose a threat to Earth’s technology and, in some cases, human health[5]. While solar flares can disturb the Earth’s ionosphere and radio communications, they do not pose a direct danger to humans on the surface[1]. However, there are several ways in which solar flares can impact Earth:
1. Geomagnetic storms: Powerful solar flares can trigger geomagnetic storms in Earth’s atmosphere, which can disrupt satellite communication systems, power grids, and other technologies that rely on precise timing or accurate data[8].
2. Satellite navigation systems: The x-rays and extreme ultraviolet radiation from solar flares can interfere with satellite navigation systems, causing disruptions in their functioning[7].
3. High-frequency radio signals: Solar flares can disrupt high-frequency radio signals, affecting communication systems[6].
4. Power systems: Solar flares can cause power outages by disrupting power systems, which can adversely affect our daily lives[9].
5. Aviation: Intense solar flares release high-energy particles that can be as dangerous to humans as the low-energy radiation from nuclear blasts. Hazards to aircraft can be reduced by changing flight paths as necessary[9].
While there is no question that solar flares can interfere with modern life, closely monitoring sunspots and other denizens of solar active regions can allow for better prediction and mitigation of their effects[7]. Additionally, satellites and power grids can be shielded to reduce their vulnerability to electromagnetic pulses[8].
Could a Solar Flare or CME Destroy the Earth?
Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are powerful phenomena that can affect Earth’s magnetic field and cause disruptions to power grids, communication devices, and satellites. However, there is no evidence that any solar weather has ever harmed humans[16]. While solar storms can tamper with radar and radio systems or knock satellites offline, the most harmful radiation is sopped up in the sky long before it touches human skin. Even at their worst, the sun’s flares are not physically capable of destroying Earth[19]. The largest flare ever recorded was in August 1972, and it had no discernible effects on any terrestrial populations, including people[18]. Although some research suggests that the Sun may be capable of producing superflares, which are as much as 1000x stronger than any flares in the historical record, the discrepancy is not yet resolved[17]. Space weather experts at NASA and other agencies closely monitor the sun for potentially hazardous activity, and while solar flares and CMEs can cause disruptions, they are not capable of destroying Earth[16][19][20].
Citations:
[1] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-flares-radio-blackouts
[2] https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/nmp/st5/SCIENCE/effects2.html
[3] https://www.space.com/solar-flares-effects-classification-formation
[4] https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/should-you-really-worry-about-solar-flares/
[5] https://www.swsc-journal.org/articles/swsc/full_html/2020/01/swsc190079/swsc190079.html
[6] https://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/rhessi3/mission/science/the-impact-of-flares/index.html
[7] https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/should-you-really-worry-about-solar-flares/
[8] https://www.dw.com/en/can-solar-flares-harm-earths-technology/video-64663358
[9] https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/nmp/st5/SCIENCE/effects2.html
[10] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_flare
[11] https://www.space.com/12584-worst-solar-storms-sun-flares-history.html
[12] https://bigthink.com/starts-with-a-bang/vulnerable-solar-flare/
[13] https://science.howstuffworks.com/solar-flare-electronics.htm
[14] https://earthsky.org/sun/x-flares-most-powerful-solar-flare/
[15] https://www.wsj.com/science/environment/solar-storm-early-warning-system-b6324524
[16] https://www.livescience.com/solar-storm-destroy-earth
[17] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_solar_storms
[18] https://solar-center.stanford.edu/FAQ/Qflaredest.html
[19] https://www.space.com/solar-flares-effects-classification-formation
[20] https://www.wane.com/weather/solar-flares-will-increase-cause-problems-on-earth-through-2025-nasa-says/
[21] https://www.sciencealert.com/the-white-house-is-prepping-for-a-huge-solar-storm-that-could-kick-us-back-into-the-dark-ages