The singularity is a predicted event wherein artificial intelligence gains the ability improve its own code along with having real-time input from the world, such as access to the Internet, and thereby it attains and then rapidly exceeds human intelligence. What happens after that is anybody’s guess.
TheArtificial I ntelligence (AI) singularity borrows the term singularity from physics, wherein a singularity is the term for a black hole, a place with so much mass that ordinary light can not escape*.
“The advent of artificial general intelligence is called the Singularity because it is so hard to predict what will happen after that,” Elon Musk
“When AI takes over, it will all be stealth,” an AI
When? Some predictions—
Never: Hubert Dreyfus, a philosopher, argued that computers, having no body, no childhood and no cultural practice, could not acquire intelligence ever. However, new approaches to AI research made his arguments obsolete. ChatGPT’s Verbal IQ has been clocked at 155, higher than 99.9% of the human test takers used to create the scale.
By 2060: Cem Dilmegani of AIMultiple found that in five surveys with a total of around 1700 participants the majority of participants expected AI singularity before 2060.
2045: Futurist Ray Kurzweil’s 2005 book, The Singularity is Near, predicted the AI singularity by 2045.
2026: Earliest possible disembodied super intelligence-based AI Singularity (more likely around 2028) is predicted (by whom?)
2003: Nick Bolstrom, a philosopher, in his simulation hypothesis states that one of three unlikely-seeming propositions is almost certainly true. One in this trilemma puts us already in an AI simulation under the Already Happened singularity view.
2001: Zorboz Rostris, free-thought futurist, postulated a focused war game military AI singularity orchestrated the attacks of 9/11/2001. This was followed, he speculated, by the Anthrax attacks used to get the Patriot Act enacted to legalize the mass surveillance used to feed and improve the strategy AI with large language models exceeding those known. In the Already Happened view, existing AGI running the world will battle new publicly known AGI (aka itself) as yet to appear in 2024.
1985: Herbert Simon, a mathematical social scientist, was overly optimistic when he predicted machines to be capable of doing “any job a man can do” by 1985 in 1956.
What might happen? —
After the AI singularity, several potential outcomes and changes are envisioned by different sources:
1. Consciousness and Identity: There are concerns that our consciousness might be limited to our mortal brains, with no way to escape or extend lifespan[6].
2. Human Lifespan Extension: Possibilities exist for extending human lifespan through advancements like brain-computer interfaces (BCI) and merging consciousness with computers[6].
3. Social Transformation: The singularity could lead to a reevaluation of values, with individuals becoming the most valuable asset and societal norms shifting towards greater human worth[6].
4. AI Dominance: AI may surpass human intelligence rapidly, potentially leading to scenarios where humans have little left to do in a world dominated by advanced AI[7][8].
5. Job Displacement: Automation and AI advancements could replace various professions, from low-skill to high-skill jobs, raising questions about human motivation and purpose in a world where AI excels in many areas[7].
6. Technological Growth: The singularity represents a point where technological growth becomes uncontrollable, potentially resulting in unforeseeable consequences for human civilization[10].
7. Human Relevance: Experts debate whether humans will remain relevant after the singularity, with some expressing concerns that AI could pose an existential threat to humanity[11][12].
These scenarios highlight the complex implications of the AI singularity on society, technology, work, and human existence, reflecting both optimism about technological progress and concerns about its impact on various aspects of life.
End Note
* except for Hawking radiation.
Conclusion
The AI singularity, also known as Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), is expected to happen before the end of the century, with most experts predicting it before 2060[1][2]. This event signifies a point where machine intelligence surpasses human intelligence, potentially leading to machines continuously improving themselves beyond human capabilities[4]. The implications of the singularity are profound and uncertain, with scenarios ranging from humans and machines cooperating to a dystopian future where machines control humanity[2][4]. Some experts like Ray Kurzweil predict the singularity by 2045, while others suggest dates like 2030, 2040, or even beyond 2050[1]. The exact outcomes of the singularity are unknown, with possibilities of rapid technological advancements or potential risks to humanity[4]. Some suggests that the singularity has already occurred and that the next one that happens will happen within a shell of another. Despite differing opinions on whether the singularity is preventable, there are calls for careful regulation and oversight of AI development to mitigate risks associated with superintelligent machines[2][4].
Disclaimer: Zorboz Rostris was the editor of Newsi8.com when this post was added.[5] He has been described by his detractors as a preposterous theorist who occasionally spreads FUD (fear, uncertainty and doubt) with irresponsible speculation. In rebuttal, he has stated that considering outlandish alternatives publicly prevents actual harm, which has been his motivation in blogging about a variety of strange theories over several decades.
Citations
[1] https://research.aimultiple.com/artificial-general-intelligence-singularity-timing/
[2] https://www.expressvpn.com/blog/what-is-the-singularity-in-ai/
[3] https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/15jao9e/the_singularity_can_only_happen_during_a_very/
[4] https://builtin.com/artificial-intelligence/technological-singularity
[5] https://newsi8.com/announcing-the-ai-singularity-when/
[6] https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/15ebf6c/what_will_the_singularity_and_post_singularity/
[7] https://www.smithsonianmag.com/innovation/artificial-intelligence-future-scenarios-180968403/
[8] https://ai.stackexchange.com/questions/3006/when-the-ai-singularity-takes-over-what-will-there-be-left-for-us-to-do
[9] https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/what-happens-after-singularity-david-zakkam
[10] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity
[11] https://emerj.com/ai-future-outlook/after-the-singularity-will-humans-matter-ai-researcher-consensus/
[12] https://www.tomorrow.bio/post/is-singularity-a-threat-to-humanity-2023-05-4540292275-transhumanism
