Here are a few real-world examples in governance decisions where understanding the Monty Hall Problem will improve the odds of making good decisions, those with the best probability of success.
1. Elections: The Monty Hall Problem can be applied to voting systems where multiple candidates are competing for a position. When voters have to choose among three options, the way the votes are counted and the elimination process can have a similar effect to the Monty Hall Problem. For instance, in a primary election with three candidates, the decision to eliminate the least popular candidate can impact the final outcome.
2. Resource Allocation: The Monty Hall Problem can also be relevant in scenarios where resources need to be allocated to different projects or entities. For example, a government may have to decide which three companies will receive a contract to provide a certain service. How the selection process is conducted (similarly to the Monty Hall Problem’s “showing a goat”) can influence the perceived fairness and outcome of distributing the resources.
3. School Admissions: In the context of limited seat availability for admissions to schools or colleges, the Monty Hall Problem can be applicable. Imagine a scenario where three equally competitive students apply for one open seat. The admission authority might choose to reject one student due to various reasons (their financial status, residence, or background), despite all students having similar qualifications. This situation can relate to the Monty Hall Problem, where the removal of one option affects the probability of the remaining choices.
4. Project Selection: In project management, organizations often have to choose between multiple projects to invest in, considering factors such as profitability, risk, and alignment with strategic objectives. Similar to the Monty Hall Problem, selecting one project may mean disregarding the other two, even if they are potentially viable options. The decision-making process and criteria used can significantly impact the outcomes for both the organization and the projects.
5. Public Policy Decisions: Government bodies often face situations where they need to make decisions that affect society as a whole. The Monty Hall Problem can be applied to policy decisions where three solutions are presented, and one is chosen for implementation, while the other two are excluded. For example, when deciding on approaches to address a public health crisis, showing similar dynamics as the Monty Hall Problem can arise, with different options having varying levels of effectiveness or impact.
Overall, the Monty Hall Problem can analogously be adapted to various governance decisions that involve selecting from a set of options, eliminating choices, and the subsequent impact on probabilities or outcomes.